Nearly a 60F degree difference in temperatures across the Northeast today with 20s in New England and 80s in New Jersey. A much colder Sunday on the way to the areas that enjoyed Summer today. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Drought coverage is the most in 3 years and likely to expand West, North and Northeast. Currently 67% of the country is in dry to drought phases vs only 42% last year. Normal this time of year is closer to 48%.
The drier areas across the South and East allow pollen levels to remain in the air longer, creating more suffering with levels very high today. Rain and cooler temperatures suppresses pollen and reduces suffering. wt360 supports the folks at Pollen.com with long range outlooks.
While wildfire acres burned is down from last year (306K acres vs 1.6M acres with the Texas Smokehouse fire), the fires that have occurred in Southern California, Southern Plains, Southeast and the Northeast have been much more costly. This will increase dramatically in 2025.
La Niña is just about history with rapid warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The balance of 2025 is likely to enter an ENSO Neutral (average) phase with possibly a weak El Niño by Winter. This will create a lot of weather volatility in 2025.
The sub-surface ocean temperature data shows the dramatic warming of waters in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific hinting that an El Nino is not out of the question late this year.
Severe weather took a bit of a break last week with only 11 tornadoes, 57 wind events, but 149 hail events. Flooding in South Texas was extreme with some areas getting over a foot of rain.
Now the severe weather threat returns this weekend from Texas to the Ohio Valley and again in the week ahead.
Last week (23-29 March) across the World shows the U.S. trending +7.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 13 years and 4th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall was down -46%, driest in 3 years and 18th driest of the past 40 years, while snowfall was also down -78%, least in 3 years and 16th least in 40 years. These are favorable trends for early Spring seasonal sales, but this was Easter week last year which has shifted into middle April this year. Consumers are also being impacted by high February heating bills eating into discretionary spending. Still cold across Canada, while the rest of the World was generally warm benefiting seasonal category sales, especially consumable categories.
This week (30 Mar - 5 Apr) shows another major cold snap moving into the Western half of the U.S. and spreading East. The warmer weather in the East will gradually cool down as well toward next weekend. The U.S. overall trends +3.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 10 years and 7th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall is up +46% and #1 wettest in over 40 years with more severe weather from Texas to Ohio. Snowfall down -29% vs last year, least in 3 years and 16th least in 40 years. These are somewhat less favorable trends with the rainfall and severe weather impacting store traffic.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (29 Mar - 3 Apr) shows more heavy snow for the Western Mountains and the Upper Plains and Upper Midwest. Snowfall +54% vs last year, 11th most in 40 years with 27% of the U.S. population getting some snow. Even New England is getting some moderate snow.
Next week (6-12 Apr) shows the transient weather pattern with the cold moving into the East while the West warms up rapidly. The U.S. overall trends +1.5F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 4th warmest in 40 years. Rainfall down -52% vs last year, least in 13 years and 8th least in 40 years, while snowfall is down -37% and 3rd least in 40 years. The Northeast is the least favorable area for Spring merchandise sales. Severe weather limited to the South-Central U.S.
The World 2-week (30 Mar - 12 Apr) Temperature trends show continued cold conditions across Canada and New England. While Europe is mild, it's still much colder than last year negatively impacting Spring sales.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook shows heavy rain from Texas to the Ohio Valley, much of Canada is well above average with wetter conditions for Brazil's crop growing regions.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
