2025 is off to a cold and snowy start with a wholesale change from last year when it was warm and wet. Year-to-date is the coldest in 15 years, driest in 10 years and snowiest in 4 years, negative trends for retail store traffic and sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
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This has Great Lakes ice cover surging to 48%, the most in 6 years and 14% above average. Last year was near historic lows with only 8% ice cover. This dramatically increases the chances for a cold March - April in the Northeast downwind of the Great Lakes. Northwest winds in Spring coming off the cold lakes makes it much harder for really warm Spring weather.
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Snow Cover this morning is equally impressive with 55% of the country blanketed in snow which is the most in 12 years and 19% above average. Last year near historic lows with only 18% snow cover - the least in 8 years. Too many businesses that plan off last year are running Spring ads which are not effective with weather like this.
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Season-to-date snowfall continues to climb steadily with the U.S. up +33% over last year, but still 8th least of the past 40 years and -18% below average nationally. But the big winners are the Southeast with the most snow in 14 years, Northeast and South Central the most in 4 years, while the Southwest is the least in 25 years.
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Weekly U.S. snowfall trends show the past two weeks here in February have been the 2nd and 3rd snowiest weeks of Winter. The snowiest week was January 5th-11th for the nation overall. March looks like it could start very snowy and rival for the #3 snowiest week of Winter.
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As a result of the more Winter-like pattern here in 2025, severe weather is off to a much slower start. Tornadoes are down -18% vs last year, least in 4 years, Hail down -81% vs last year and least in 3 years, but wind cases picked up some ground with the big storm system in the Great Lakes and Northeast this past week. Wind cases still down -22% vs last year, but +13% above average.
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Last week (16-22 Feb) across the World shows the U.S. trending -13F colder than last year and #1 coldest in over 40 years. Rainfall up +51%, most in 3 years and 10th wettest in 40 years, while snowfall was also up +169% vs LY, most in 4 years and 8th most in 40 years. These are very unfavorable trends for store traffic and early Spring seasonal merchandise. It's great for Winter inventory clearance sales for must-have items. But consumers are getting very hard hit with exceptional heating bills trending 25% to 35% higher than last year eating into discretionary spending. This will continue well into late Q1 - Spring. Canada equally unfavorable.
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This week (23 Feb -1 Mar) shows a short-lived February Thaw, especially West and Central. The U.S. overall trends -2.6F colder than last year but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Snowfall down -10% vs last year, least in 25 years and 2nd least in 40 years with a reprieve from the snowy first three weeks of February. Rainfall down -42% vs last year, least in 23 years and 5th driest in 40 years. These are slightly favorable trends for a bounce in store traffic, but it will be brief.
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Next week (2-8 Mar) looks to come in like a lion with national temperatures trending -8.3F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 13th coldest of the past 40 years with below average national temperatures. Snowfall up +298% over last year, most in 7 years and 7th most in 40 years with a couple systems impacting the Midwest and East Coast. Rainfall down -50% vs last year, least in 4 years and 15th driest of the past 40 years nationally. These are very negative weather trends for early Spring sales from the Central U.S. to the East Coast.
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The World 2-week (23 Feb - 8 Mar) temperature outlook shows Western North America more favorable than Eastern North America for early Spring sales.
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The World 2-week (23 Feb - 8 Mar) precipitation trends show a stormier pattern for Central Europe and China. Very dry conditions for Australia as the enter their late Summer-early Fall period.
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Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out