It snowed outside wt360 HQ here this morning with today trending the coldest in 18 years with another gloomy Saturday. The higher elevations in the Northeast will get 1-6" of snow today, so definitely not Spring here. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
The all important few weeks leading up to Easter (1-19 April) show the U.S. overall trending the coolest in 3 years, 18th warmest of the past 40 years (near average), while rainfall is similar to last year -2% and 7th wettest of the past 40 years (above average). The North Central to the Northeast trends the coolest in 7 years (very unfavorable for Spring seasonal merchandise), while the West Coast is the bright spot, trending warmest in 4 years.
The very early outlook for Easter Sunday (20 April) shows a bigger storm system in the Central U.S. with the Northeast the cooler spot. The U.S. overall shows Easter trending the wettest in 5 years.
Severe Weather remained active with 96 tornadoes this past week, 111 hail events and 410 wind events. Tornadoes are up +79% over last year, 3rd most in 15 years. Hail cases are the most in 8 year, while wind cases the most in 14 years. This is a minor positive for Home Centers, but overall negative for Spring merchandise sales.
The 3-day severe weather outlook (12-14 Apr) shows a bit of a lull with some increased threats in the Ohio Valley early next week.
Last week (6-12 Apr) across the World shows the U.S. trending -3.5F colder than last year, coldest in 7 years and 12th coldest in 40 years with below average national temperatures. The Northeast was the coldest spot trending the coldest in 18 years, with the Southwest the hottest in 11 years. Rainfall was down -33% vs last and 18th wettest of the past 40 years, while snowfall was up +105%, most in 3 years but still 12th least of the past 40 years. These were very big negative trends for Spring merchandise sales, compounded with the tariff jitters.
Canada, U.K., Europe, Russia and Brazil all showed cooler YOY trends which are negative for this time of year. China and Australia (Fall) were the hot spots.
This week (13-19 Apr) prior Easter continues to show much cooler trends in the Northeast where it will be the coolest in 5 years. The West Coast is the bright spot trending the warmest in 9 years. The U.S. overall trends -3.2F cooler than LY, coolest in 3 years and 15th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall is up +11% vs LY, but still 6th driest in 40 years nationally. Severe weather look to have a bit of a lull in activity for the harder hit Central and Southeast U.S.
The 6-day snowfall trends (12-17 Apr) show the Northern Rockies, extreme Upper Midwest and New England the snowier spots.
Next week (20-26 Apr) shows a moderating trend with the U.S. overall trending +3.4F warmer than last year, warmest in 6 years and 8th warmest in 40 years. Rainfall way up +146%, most in 14 years and 2nd most in 40 years. A potentially severe weather set up for the South Central U.S. into the Ohio Valley.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (13-26 Apr) shows the Great Lakes and Northeast are the least favorable areas for Spring seasonal sales as is Western Europe (Spain). Canada is also a bit soft with cooler trends.
World precipitation (13-26 Apr) outlook shows very wet conditions across Brazil which is good for their crops. The U.S. is also on the wet side, especially in the Central U.S.
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- Captain Kirk out
