wt360 Weather Brief 9 May '26 Cool Now...Increasing Warmup for Memorial Day
Captain's Log
9 May '26: Happy Saturday! :)
We hope all the Moms are having a great Mother's Day weekend, cooler East, hotter West. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Today we asked the wt360 robot about how the cooler trends the past three weeks have likely impacted Equity performance. This time of year, hot/dry weather is best for overall store traffic and seasonal sales (last year was record hot), but this year the coolest and wettest in 3 years with the biggest year-over-year drop in temperatures in 21 years. This is a negative for most retailers but a benefit to firms like Door Dash, energy companies, Amazon. Any company with a bigger Northeast footprint will be hardest hit with the region the worst for the U.S. overall. Our Door Dash favorability index is one of the highest at +3.7 best in 18 years, while BJs is one of the worst in decades.
So, what about Spring (1 March - 9 May) to date rainfall? While the U.S. overall is trending the driest in 8 years and 15th driest of the past 41 years, the U.S. Corn Belt (Iowa to Ohio) is trending 5th wettest in 41 years. The Great Lakes, Midwest and Interior Northeast are the wet spots, as is West Texas and South Florida. The dividing line from wet to dry is extreme and sharp across Missouri (very wet) to Arkansas (very dry) and Pennsylvania (very wet) to South New Jersey (very dry).
Long term drought conditions (counts the prior year weather) show some improvement from the peak drought on 1 April, but still very high 75% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases.
Severe Weather had a bit of a lull last week only adding 31 tornadoes, 68 hail events and 106 wind events. All three categories are now trending below last year's levels, but still above average.
The week ahead severe weather outlook shows the South and especially Texas being the more active spots.
Last week across the World (3-9 May) shows the U.S. again trending -2.6F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years and 12th coolest in 41 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days were down -9% vs LY, least in 7 years and 15th least in 41 years, while rainfall was down -39% vs LY, least in 6 years and 15th least in 41 years. Cool hurts seasonal sales, especially apparel and consumables, but dry is a benefit to store traffic for non-seasonal items. Continued cooler across Canada, Warm in Europe and Russia and a return to wet in Brazil for their 2nd season crops.
This week (10-16 May) shows the U.S. having its 4th straight week with cooler YOY national temperatures. The U.S. overall trends -3F cooler than last year, coolest in 5 years, but 15th warmest in 41 years. Hot 90F days down -42% vs LY, least in 3 years, but 12th most in 41 years, while rainfall is down -41% vs LY, driest in 4 years and 12th driest in 41 years. Tale of two halves with hot/dry West, cooler/wetter East. Overall same general soft trends for seasonal category sales.
Next week (17-23 May) is the week before an early Memorial Day weekend and the weather is likely to improve. The U.S. overall trends +6.2F warmer than last year, warmest in 8 years, 2nd warmest in 41 years. A big change from last year's cold/wet week. Hot 90F days up +10% vs LY and 4th most in 41 years, this will drive higher demand for categories like AC, fans, pool chemicals and cold beverages with a pent up demand surge. Rainfall down -22% vs LY and 19th driest of the past 41 years but continues stormy in the Midwest and much needed rainfall for the Middle Atlantic.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (10-23 May) shows expanding heat in the Western half of North America, cooler Northeast. A cooling trend for Europe, Argentina and Southern Brazil.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (10-23 May) shows heavier rain for Brazil a benefit to their second season crops, wet across Europe and bullseye of rain in the U.S. Midwest to East Coast.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
We hope all the Moms are having a great Mother's Day weekend, cooler East, hotter West. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Today we asked the wt360 robot about how the cooler trends the past three weeks have likely impacted Equity performance. This time of year, hot/dry weather is best for overall store traffic and seasonal sales (last year was record hot), but this year the coolest and wettest in 3 years with the biggest year-over-year drop in temperatures in 21 years. This is a negative for most retailers but a benefit to firms like Door Dash, energy companies, Amazon. Any company with a bigger Northeast footprint will be hardest hit with the region the worst for the U.S. overall. Our Door Dash favorability index is one of the highest at +3.7 best in 18 years, while BJs is one of the worst in decades.
So, what about Spring (1 March - 9 May) to date rainfall? While the U.S. overall is trending the driest in 8 years and 15th driest of the past 41 years, the U.S. Corn Belt (Iowa to Ohio) is trending 5th wettest in 41 years. The Great Lakes, Midwest and Interior Northeast are the wet spots, as is West Texas and South Florida. The dividing line from wet to dry is extreme and sharp across Missouri (very wet) to Arkansas (very dry) and Pennsylvania (very wet) to South New Jersey (very dry).
Long term drought conditions (counts the prior year weather) show some improvement from the peak drought on 1 April, but still very high 75% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases.
Severe Weather had a bit of a lull last week only adding 31 tornadoes, 68 hail events and 106 wind events. All three categories are now trending below last year's levels, but still above average.
The week ahead severe weather outlook shows the South and especially Texas being the more active spots.
Last week across the World (3-9 May) shows the U.S. again trending -2.6F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years and 12th coolest in 41 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days were down -9% vs LY, least in 7 years and 15th least in 41 years, while rainfall was down -39% vs LY, least in 6 years and 15th least in 41 years. Cool hurts seasonal sales, especially apparel and consumables, but dry is a benefit to store traffic for non-seasonal items. Continued cooler across Canada, Warm in Europe and Russia and a return to wet in Brazil for their 2nd season crops.
This week (10-16 May) shows the U.S. having its 4th straight week with cooler YOY national temperatures. The U.S. overall trends -3F cooler than last year, coolest in 5 years, but 15th warmest in 41 years. Hot 90F days down -42% vs LY, least in 3 years, but 12th most in 41 years, while rainfall is down -41% vs LY, driest in 4 years and 12th driest in 41 years. Tale of two halves with hot/dry West, cooler/wetter East. Overall same general soft trends for seasonal category sales.
Next week (17-23 May) is the week before an early Memorial Day weekend and the weather is likely to improve. The U.S. overall trends +6.2F warmer than last year, warmest in 8 years, 2nd warmest in 41 years. A big change from last year's cold/wet week. Hot 90F days up +10% vs LY and 4th most in 41 years, this will drive higher demand for categories like AC, fans, pool chemicals and cold beverages with a pent up demand surge. Rainfall down -22% vs LY and 19th driest of the past 41 years but continues stormy in the Midwest and much needed rainfall for the Middle Atlantic.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (10-23 May) shows expanding heat in the Western half of North America, cooler Northeast. A cooling trend for Europe, Argentina and Southern Brazil.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (10-23 May) shows heavier rain for Brazil a benefit to their second season crops, wet across Europe and bullseye of rain in the U.S. Midwest to East Coast.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)