wt360 Weather Brief 18 Apr '26: Back Half April Hot 90F Days Least in 16 Years
Captain's Log
18 April '26: Happy Saturday! :)
wt360's YEAR-AHEAD Spring 2026 Severe Weather Outlook has been on a roll this year capturing 8 major weather events so far from the avalanche in California, Drought in the Southeast, Blizzard Midwest, Severe Weather Midwest-Lakes, etc. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
For small businesses that want the same type of year-ahead by week seasonal category sales forecasts we provide our Fortune 500 clients, you can now get 48 different categories on Spartera.com. Categories like garden, pool chemicals, Spring apparel, cold beverage, etc. Visit our marketplace store.
There's a lot of buzz on what could become a very strong El Niño and it could happen very quickly this Summer. The very positive +PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) is at near record levels, and this could be one factor to rapidly intensify the pending El Niño.
Then the typical El Niño area of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly warming off Ecuador, and this could accelerate based on what lies beneath!
We only have to go 300 feet below the surface of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean to find +5C much above, near historic warm waters percolating to the surface. +2C would be a super El Niño, so this is becoming increasingly likely.
Computer models never as good as the empirical evidence, but the IRI is still leaning strong El Niño by late Summer and CFS model more moderate. IRI usually the better guidance.
Not a fan of analog weather forecasts based on similar climate cycles in the past, but they do agree with wt360's year-ahead forecast of a much cooler and much wetter Summer pattern in the U.S. and Eastern Canada. The West warmer/drier, while Hawaii continues to get big storms. wt360 is projecting the wettest core Summer-Fall in 5, maybe 8 years for the U.S. overall.
Last week (12-18 Apr) across the World shows the U.S. trending +5.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 24 years and 2nd warmest in 41 years. Rainfall was way up +164% vs LY, most in 4 years and 19th most in 41 years, while snowfall was down -35% vs LY. The rain had a dampening impact on store traffic, but overall, a stronger week for seasonal category sales. Canada remained the cool and snowy spot with a delayed Spring, while the U.K. and Western Europe were generally favorable.
Severe weather to date shows an uptick in activity this past week with 52 tornadoes, 378 hail events and 428 wind cases. Hail is the only category trending above last year, which got off to a faster start than this year.
The week ahead severe weather outlook shows some activity continuing today in the Ohio Valley, but then a lull in activity until later next week.
This week (19-25 Apr) shows the big cool down with frost and freezes returning early in the week for the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The heat shifts to the Central Plains, but overall, the U.S. trends -1.5F cooler than last year, but really hot 90F days are down -35% and the least in 5 years. Rainfall down -32% vs LY and 10th driest of the past 41 years. Some softening of demand for Spring seasonal merchandise.
Next week (26 Apr - 2 May) shows even cooler trends with the U.S. trending -3.7F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years with hot 90F days down -62% and the least in 21 years. Very likely we get some late frost and freezes from the Midwest into the Northeast. This could have a bigger impact with so much vegetation, fruit crops, etc. out too early. Continued slowing of demand for Spring seasonal merchandise, but the most favorable region is the West and Pacific Northwest.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (19 Apr - 2 May) shows cooler trends continuing for Canada and The Great Lakes - Northeast, while the West is generally the most favorable area. Western Europe more favorable than Eastern Europe.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (19 Apr - 2 May) shows some drier weather across Brazil after a wetter pattern the past few months. Europe a bit stormier while Australia turns very dry as the enter middle Fall.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
wt360's YEAR-AHEAD Spring 2026 Severe Weather Outlook has been on a roll this year capturing 8 major weather events so far from the avalanche in California, Drought in the Southeast, Blizzard Midwest, Severe Weather Midwest-Lakes, etc. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
For small businesses that want the same type of year-ahead by week seasonal category sales forecasts we provide our Fortune 500 clients, you can now get 48 different categories on Spartera.com. Categories like garden, pool chemicals, Spring apparel, cold beverage, etc. Visit our marketplace store.
There's a lot of buzz on what could become a very strong El Niño and it could happen very quickly this Summer. The very positive +PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) is at near record levels, and this could be one factor to rapidly intensify the pending El Niño.
Then the typical El Niño area of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly warming off Ecuador, and this could accelerate based on what lies beneath!
We only have to go 300 feet below the surface of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean to find +5C much above, near historic warm waters percolating to the surface. +2C would be a super El Niño, so this is becoming increasingly likely.
Computer models never as good as the empirical evidence, but the IRI is still leaning strong El Niño by late Summer and CFS model more moderate. IRI usually the better guidance.
Not a fan of analog weather forecasts based on similar climate cycles in the past, but they do agree with wt360's year-ahead forecast of a much cooler and much wetter Summer pattern in the U.S. and Eastern Canada. The West warmer/drier, while Hawaii continues to get big storms. wt360 is projecting the wettest core Summer-Fall in 5, maybe 8 years for the U.S. overall.
Last week (12-18 Apr) across the World shows the U.S. trending +5.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 24 years and 2nd warmest in 41 years. Rainfall was way up +164% vs LY, most in 4 years and 19th most in 41 years, while snowfall was down -35% vs LY. The rain had a dampening impact on store traffic, but overall, a stronger week for seasonal category sales. Canada remained the cool and snowy spot with a delayed Spring, while the U.K. and Western Europe were generally favorable.
Severe weather to date shows an uptick in activity this past week with 52 tornadoes, 378 hail events and 428 wind cases. Hail is the only category trending above last year, which got off to a faster start than this year.
The week ahead severe weather outlook shows some activity continuing today in the Ohio Valley, but then a lull in activity until later next week.
This week (19-25 Apr) shows the big cool down with frost and freezes returning early in the week for the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The heat shifts to the Central Plains, but overall, the U.S. trends -1.5F cooler than last year, but really hot 90F days are down -35% and the least in 5 years. Rainfall down -32% vs LY and 10th driest of the past 41 years. Some softening of demand for Spring seasonal merchandise.
Next week (26 Apr - 2 May) shows even cooler trends with the U.S. trending -3.7F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years with hot 90F days down -62% and the least in 21 years. Very likely we get some late frost and freezes from the Midwest into the Northeast. This could have a bigger impact with so much vegetation, fruit crops, etc. out too early. Continued slowing of demand for Spring seasonal merchandise, but the most favorable region is the West and Pacific Northwest.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (19 Apr - 2 May) shows cooler trends continuing for Canada and The Great Lakes - Northeast, while the West is generally the most favorable area. Western Europe more favorable than Eastern Europe.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (19 Apr - 2 May) shows some drier weather across Brazil after a wetter pattern the past few months. Europe a bit stormier while Australia turns very dry as the enter middle Fall.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)