wt360 Weather Brief 12 Sep '26: Hope for Apparel Retailers
Captain's Log
12 Sep '26: Happy Saturday. :)
We were down at the World of DaaS conference at the White House for a few speakers and then informative sessions at the Water Gate Hotel. Always interesting to see how both the government and innovative companies are leveraging AI data solutions for good. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The NEW weathertrends360 FREE app is live in the app stores and early feedback is exciting. When folks say it's better than the #1 weather app, we don't have annoying Ads and they like our Sunny AI companion, it makes a year effort worth it. Check it out and let us know what you think. More super cool features coming in a week or so and we're adding several more languages.
So, let's ask Sunny about this expected slow start to the Fall apparel season due to warmer weather. Last week (6-12 Sep) was +5.3F warmer than a year ago for the U.S. which resulted in a wt360 Lightweight Outerwear Favorability Index of -18%, the worst in 41 years. Conversely the heat benefited a consumable category like bottled water +12% and #1 best in 41 years. The Northwest weas best for apparel, the South Central best for Summer consumable items like cold beverages, fruits and vegetables and pool chemicals. etc.
Asking Sunny about rainfall over the past 2 months shows feast or famine with Hawaii #1 wettest in 41 years, U.S. Corn Belt wettest in 8 years and the Northeast wettest in 5 years. Arkansas in famine mode with the #1 driest in 41+ years, Oklahoma driest in 28 years and Texas 4th driest in 41 years. Remember droughts end in floods and we expect this South Central region to get VERY WET over the next 9 months, starting this Fall.
World rainfall trends (19 July - 11 Sep) show a classic El Niño footprint with a very active Pacific storm pattern.
The number of tropical cyclone systems has tied a record in the Western Pacific with 34 cyclones (including tropical depressions) and 7 typhoons. The Eastern and especially Central Pacific has been extremely active, 19 systems and 9 hurricanes, with several impacts to Hawaii including CAT 2 Lowell last week hitting the Western Hawaiian Islands of Ni'ihau, Kauai and Oahu with significant damage.
Sahara Africa dust continues to be one of two major inhibiting factors in the Atlantic Basin that is approaching historically low tropical activity. Dust and upper level El Nino windshear are the major factors inhibiting the season. There might be a brief window for some activity late September into early October with Florida the highest risk.
Severe weather to date shows tornadoes down -2% vs LY, least in 3 years but still well above average, wind cases +27% vs LY and the most in 15 years, while hail id down -3% vs LY and below average.
We'll add some severe weather this week but look for a big late season surge this Fall, common with strong El Niños.
Guess what we see...the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex starting to redevelop after a long hiatus since Spring. It's not fully developed or reaching the surface, but getting close by late month.
Last week (6-12 Sep) across the World shows the U.S. trending +5.3F warmer than LY, warmest in 3 years and 2nd warmest in 41 years. These are very negative trends for Fall merchandise sales, particularly apparel. Hot 90F days up +79% vs LY, most in 3 years and 4th most in 41 years, while rainfall was up +98%, wettest in 4 years but still 13th driest in 41 years nationally. Very clear El Nino global WET pattern with the World trending the #1 wettest in 41+ years. This will be a prolonged 9 month WET pattern with flooding becoming headline news.
Hard to believe we're talking about FOOTBALL season, but only a couple games have weather to match, namely the Packers and Vikings with cool weather, most other games on the warm side.
This week (13-19 Sep) shows some hope for apparel sales from the Northwest to Upper Midwest but hot across the South. The U.S. overall trends +0.4F warmer than LY and 5th warmest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days similar to LY and 5th most in 41 years, while rainfall is way up +150% wetter vs LY, wettest in 8 years and 5th wettest in 41 years. Wet weather can help boost consumer sentiment to think Fall merchandise, so the Midwest looks best.
Next week (20-26 Sep) shows that cooler weather heading to the Northeast with a warming trend out West. The U.S. overall more favorable trending -2.3F cooler than LY, coolest in 5 years while still 12th warmest in 41 years. Hot 90F days down -20% vs LY, least in 5 years and 18th most of the past 41 years, while rainfall is off the charts #1 wettest in 41 years this is contingent upon some models hinting at a tropical threat for Florida moving inland or off the East Coast - TBD. These are better trends for Fall merchandise.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (13-26 Sep) shows more favorable cooler trends across Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. Western Europe remains unfavorable for Fall items, but still strong for consumables like cold beverages.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (13-26 Sep) shows WET for the U.S., Brazil and Africa, still very dry for much of Europe.
You can get this blog in your email inbox every weekend (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
We were down at the World of DaaS conference at the White House for a few speakers and then informative sessions at the Water Gate Hotel. Always interesting to see how both the government and innovative companies are leveraging AI data solutions for good. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The NEW weathertrends360 FREE app is live in the app stores and early feedback is exciting. When folks say it's better than the #1 weather app, we don't have annoying Ads and they like our Sunny AI companion, it makes a year effort worth it. Check it out and let us know what you think. More super cool features coming in a week or so and we're adding several more languages.
So, let's ask Sunny about this expected slow start to the Fall apparel season due to warmer weather. Last week (6-12 Sep) was +5.3F warmer than a year ago for the U.S. which resulted in a wt360 Lightweight Outerwear Favorability Index of -18%, the worst in 41 years. Conversely the heat benefited a consumable category like bottled water +12% and #1 best in 41 years. The Northwest weas best for apparel, the South Central best for Summer consumable items like cold beverages, fruits and vegetables and pool chemicals. etc.
Asking Sunny about rainfall over the past 2 months shows feast or famine with Hawaii #1 wettest in 41 years, U.S. Corn Belt wettest in 8 years and the Northeast wettest in 5 years. Arkansas in famine mode with the #1 driest in 41+ years, Oklahoma driest in 28 years and Texas 4th driest in 41 years. Remember droughts end in floods and we expect this South Central region to get VERY WET over the next 9 months, starting this Fall.
World rainfall trends (19 July - 11 Sep) show a classic El Niño footprint with a very active Pacific storm pattern.
The number of tropical cyclone systems has tied a record in the Western Pacific with 34 cyclones (including tropical depressions) and 7 typhoons. The Eastern and especially Central Pacific has been extremely active, 19 systems and 9 hurricanes, with several impacts to Hawaii including CAT 2 Lowell last week hitting the Western Hawaiian Islands of Ni'ihau, Kauai and Oahu with significant damage.
Sahara Africa dust continues to be one of two major inhibiting factors in the Atlantic Basin that is approaching historically low tropical activity. Dust and upper level El Nino windshear are the major factors inhibiting the season. There might be a brief window for some activity late September into early October with Florida the highest risk.
Severe weather to date shows tornadoes down -2% vs LY, least in 3 years but still well above average, wind cases +27% vs LY and the most in 15 years, while hail id down -3% vs LY and below average.
We'll add some severe weather this week but look for a big late season surge this Fall, common with strong El Niños.
Guess what we see...the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex starting to redevelop after a long hiatus since Spring. It's not fully developed or reaching the surface, but getting close by late month.
Last week (6-12 Sep) across the World shows the U.S. trending +5.3F warmer than LY, warmest in 3 years and 2nd warmest in 41 years. These are very negative trends for Fall merchandise sales, particularly apparel. Hot 90F days up +79% vs LY, most in 3 years and 4th most in 41 years, while rainfall was up +98%, wettest in 4 years but still 13th driest in 41 years nationally. Very clear El Nino global WET pattern with the World trending the #1 wettest in 41+ years. This will be a prolonged 9 month WET pattern with flooding becoming headline news.
Hard to believe we're talking about FOOTBALL season, but only a couple games have weather to match, namely the Packers and Vikings with cool weather, most other games on the warm side.
This week (13-19 Sep) shows some hope for apparel sales from the Northwest to Upper Midwest but hot across the South. The U.S. overall trends +0.4F warmer than LY and 5th warmest of the past 41 years. Hot 90F days similar to LY and 5th most in 41 years, while rainfall is way up +150% wetter vs LY, wettest in 8 years and 5th wettest in 41 years. Wet weather can help boost consumer sentiment to think Fall merchandise, so the Midwest looks best.
Next week (20-26 Sep) shows that cooler weather heading to the Northeast with a warming trend out West. The U.S. overall more favorable trending -2.3F cooler than LY, coolest in 5 years while still 12th warmest in 41 years. Hot 90F days down -20% vs LY, least in 5 years and 18th most of the past 41 years, while rainfall is off the charts #1 wettest in 41 years this is contingent upon some models hinting at a tropical threat for Florida moving inland or off the East Coast - TBD. These are better trends for Fall merchandise.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (13-26 Sep) shows more favorable cooler trends across Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. Western Europe remains unfavorable for Fall items, but still strong for consumables like cold beverages.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (13-26 Sep) shows WET for the U.S., Brazil and Africa, still very dry for much of Europe.
You can get this blog in your email inbox every weekend (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)