Weather for Early October 2021

Happy Sunday. :)

This Tuesday at 3pm EDT we'll be speaking to the Allergy & Asthma Network folks on our Fall-Winter outlooks which looks to go from HOT to COLD early this year. Higher risk for the 80+ million that suffer from these diseases. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



One of 24 climate cycles we factor in along with trillions upon trillions of statistics to make our year-ahead forecasts is LA NIÑA! It's a double-dip event as we warned about a year ago and this time the data suggests a much earlier start to Winter in the U.S. after a very warm October. The sub-surface Pacific Ocean shows much below average water temperatures bubbling to the surface in the months ahead.

For more information on this event, visit: https://allergyasthmanetwork.org/webinars-updates/hot-fall-early-winter-the-forecast/



Last week (26 Sept - 2 Oct) across the World shows the U.S. tending 5F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years, 3rd warmest in 36 years with much above average national temperatures. This was a huge negative for Fall merchandise sales adding to the challenges retailers and supplier face with all sorts of shipping logistical issues. Rainfall was 6% less than last year, driest in 13 years and 12th driest in 36 years with below average national rainfall. Ordinarily cold, wet, snow weather is much better this time of year for overall retail sales.



This week (3-9 Oct) shows more of the same with the U.S. trending +3.3F warmer than last year making it the #1 hottest in over 36 years. If there is bright spot for Fall sales it would be the West Coast where it's quite a bit cooler than last year. Rainfall 77% wetter than a year ago as some tropical moisture moves up the Appalachian Mountains with some risk for more flooding. Still seeing some snow in the higher elevations of the Sierras and Northern Rocky Mountains.



We're running out of names for the Hurricane season with 20 systems already named. Only 1 left on the list before we start over with a new list. Weather Trends had the highest pre-season forecast of 23 named storms so we like our chances to get there with nearly two months left in the season.



There is a low probability system in the Bahamas that could get named - TBD.



Next week (10-16 Oct) here we go again...+3.6F warmer than last year with the #1 hottest conditions in over 36 years. Rainfall 36% drier than last year and driest in 6 years assuming nothing threatens the U.S. in the tropics. Again the more favorable area for Fall merchandise is in the colder Western U.S.



The 2-week World outlook (3-16 Oct) shows the few favorable spots for Fall merchandise are in the Western U.S., Western Canada, Alaska and maybe a minor lift in Western Europe (Spain - France). Russia remains the overall cooler spot.



We hope you have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out