Spring 2021 Weather Projections

Happy 1st day of "Meteorological Spring" :)

According to meteorologists, Spring is defined as 1 March - 31 May, so if you want to hang onto Winter a bit longer go with the Sun as astronomical Spring doesn't arrive until 20 March at 5:37am EDT. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



That also means that "Meteorological Winter" (1 Dec - 28 Feb) is in the history books. The Winter period was pretty mild for the U.S. overall until the Polar Vortex invaded for three weeks in February along with a parade of storms on the periphery of the Vortex. Overall Winter was the coldest in 3 years, but that was still 17th warmest of the past 36 years, so almost exactly average for the U.S. Precipitation was the driest in 6 years, 14th driest of the past 36years and below average nationally. The wet spot was the Middle Atlantic and pockets throughout the West. Snowfall is for a season from Sept - April, but season-to-date is trending 26% more than last year but again that's only 17th snowiest of the past 36 years, about average.



Now we start to think Spring severe weather season. Tornadoes-to-date are near historic lows with only 23 across the U.S. which is down 84% vs last year (141) and 79% below average (110). Typically it's frequent cold fronts and cold air clashing with warmer moist air that leads to extreme tornado seasons, but we expect a warmer/drier overall Spring which will likely keep tornadoes below average like 2020. The highest risk are is more likely to be later in the Spring in the Southeast and Middle Atlantic.



The World weather last week (21-27 February) shows Winter going out like a lamb in the U.S. after coming in like a lion. The U.S. trended 2.2F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years, 8th warmest in 36 years with above average national temperatures. This was a huge change after 3 very cold weeks with the Polar Vortex. Precipitation was 16% less than last year, driest in 13 years and 7th d



This week (1-7 March) across the U.S. trends 3.2F cooler than last year but that's still 12th warmest of the past 36 years and above average. Recall last year was a near record hot March, so expect cooler trends in March but still an above average month. Seasonal sales soared last March both due to weather and COVID, so there will be a downward trend this March. Rainfall is 10% less and least in 5 years and 11th least in 36 years. Snowfall is 76% less than a year ago and least in 29 years (much below average).



Next week (8-14 March) the mild weather in the Upper Plains expands East with much of the Eastern U.S. having a good taste of early Spring. while the West cools off. Nationally temperatures trend 2.0F cooler than last year but still 8th warmest of the past 36 years with above average temperatures. Rainfall remains a bit below average, least in 3 years and 13th least in 36 years. Snowfall is again low trending 87% less than last year, least in 5 years and 3rd least in 36 years (much below average). Overall an OK start for seasonal sales, but again we're up against extremely strong sales last year for many seasonal items.



Have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

-Captain Kirk out.