October 2021 Forecast & Recap

Happy Monday! :)

A recap of last week across the World (3-9 Oct) shows the U.S. trending #1 warmest in over 36 years with much above average national temperatures. The 3.8F warmer trends suggest significant double digit declines for Fall merchandise that typically does better in colder, wetter, snowier weather this time of year. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Precipitation was 84% wetter than last year and most in 3 years with more rain in the Southeast and Southwest U.S. where they need it. China was the warmest in 15 years, Canada the warmest in 11 years, U.K. and Australia the warmest in 3 years while it was cooler across Europe, Russia and Brazil.



This Week (11-17 Oct) here in the U.S. trend 3.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 2nd warmest of the past 36 years. But, it's a tale of two halves with the West winter-like while the East has much above average temperatures.



Snow is pretty impressive this week across the Rocky Mountains, particularly in Wyoming. A sign of things to come early this year with a much earlier onset to Winter across the U.S. in November and December!



Out in the Atlantic we still have 50 days left in the 2021 hurricane season that stands at 20 named storms. A few close in threats to watch as conditions remain favorable for development with highest risks areas in the Southeast U.S.



Next Week (18-24 Oct) shows the temperatures moderating in the West while temperatures remain above average in the Central and Eastern U.S. The U.S. overall looks to trend 1.8F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 9th warmest of the past 36 years. Precipitation down 64% vs last year, driest in 8 years and 8th driest of the past 36 years. Still unfavorable trends for Fall merchandise sales. WTI expects a much stronger Q4 for retail seasonal sales with much more favorable colder and snowier trends.



The 2-week World Outlook (11-24 Oct) shows the generally more favorable areas for Fall merchandise are in the Western U.S., Coastal West Canada, Central Europe and the northern Mediterranean.

Have a great week and don't forgot to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.