May 2021 Cool Weather Outlook for Memorial Day Weekend

Happy Monday! :)

Last week across the World (16-22 May) shows the U.S. trending +1.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 6th warmest in 36 years with much above average temperatures. This was a very favorable week for spring and even summer seasonal merchandise sales with 90F temps well into the Northeast. Rainfall was 49% less than last year, driest in 7 years and 12th driest in 36 years. Warmer and drier trends are very favorable for seasonal merchandise sales during Spring. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Europe was the cold spot once again trending coolest in 5 years and wettest in 8 years. Hot in Russia trending hottest in 36 years. Brazil continues their dry trends, trending the driest in 17 years with expanding drought.

Year-t0-date U.S. weekly weather trends show a warm and dry Spring pattern with the March to May period trending the warmest in 5 years, 4th warmest in 36 years for the U.S. overall. Rainfall has been down 16% vs last year making it the driest Spring in 9 years, 9th driest in 36 years. These are particularly favorable trends for Spring merchandise sales for items like lawn and garden, pool chemicals, allergy medications and cold beverages. The warmer and drier trends are expected to continue through June.



The drier Spring in part explains why tornadoes are again way down, trending 26% below average and 26% below last year. They're way down from the epic 2011 season so not a very active season as expected.



Not so for the 2021 Hurricane Season that already has it's first named system "Ana" which formed well Northeast of Bermuda. It was a short lived storm, but a sign of things to come. Weather Trends is expecting a very active and devastating hurricane season with Florida the high risk spot for land falling systems this year. The season officially starts 1 June.



This week (24-30 May) trends 1.3F cooler than last year but still 10th warmest of the past 36 years for the U.S. overall. Rainfall remains on the dry side trending down 21% vs last year, least in 9 years and 17th least in 36 years.



Memorial Day weekend (28-31 May) turns cooler after three warmer than average holiday weekends the past few years. This year looks to trend 2.9F cooler than last year and the coolest in 13 years, 12th coolest in 36 years. Also on the stormy side for Texas and the Middle Atlantic with the nation trending 36% wetter than last year and 15th wettest of the past 36 years.



Next week (31 May - 6 June) a warming trend looks to take shape for the Northwest, Great Lakes and Northeast with the U.S. overall trending 1.2F cooler than last year, but still 6th warmest in 36 years with above average temperatures. Rainfall appears to be 57% wetter and wettest in 5 years for the U.S. overall.



The 2-week World aggregate (24 May - 6 June) shows the warmer conditions in the Western and Eastern U.S. while Europe remains cool. The cooler trends across Europe are a negative for overall Spring merchandise sales. The excessive heat shifts out of Western Russia into the Middle East and Western China.

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- Captain Kirk out