Captain's Log Monday 10 Feb 2020

Happy Monday! :)

Last week (2-8 February) across the World shows a stormy Southeast U.S. with the Southwest-West Texas area showing the greatest trends toward colder weather vs last year and colder than average - a plus for Winter clearance sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Winter trends across the U.S. show 3 major but short lived nationwide cold snaps and the 3rd one is about to show up for Valentine's Day. The Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday weekend has been the #1 coldest period of Winter so far, #2 was the week before Christmas and #3 will be Valentine's Day.



The Valentine's Day period (Friday - Saturday) looks to be 5F colder than last year and 7th coldest of the past 35 years nationally. Recall every 1F colder brings a 3% bounce in Winter apparel/boot sales, 7% bounce in coat sales, 8% in firelog sales and a 24% bounce in electric bedding sales. Do the math shows big sales gains for Winter clearance sales (+15% YOY winter apparel, +35% coat sales, +40% firelog sales and +120% for electric bedding sales). The trends do not look overly favorable for the balance of Winter so this is the last really good clearance opportunity.



U.S. winter trends nationally suggest meteorological Winter (1 Dec - 29 Feb) will end up with the least snow in 8 years, 15% below average while temperatures and rainfall trend the 2nd warmest/wettest in 35 years.



Snowfall has been nonexistent right along the Northeast coast from DC to Boston but well inland New England has actually had a very snowy Winter with above average snowfall. But, most of the big cities have missed out on the snow this season and not much hope on the horizon.



Despite a couple snow storms from TX to the Great Lakes last week and another in the Lakes over the weekend, snow cover this morning is still below average with 37% of the country covered in snow.



The week ahead (10-16 Feb) shows a warm start but a colder finish as we get toward the Valentine's Day weekend. For the nation as a whole the week trends 1.9F warmer than last year, 12th warmest in 35 years, wettest in 30 years but 38% less snow than last year.



The 6-day snowfall outlook shows some light snow but no big snowstorms this week which historically is famous for big blizzards...not this year.



Next week (17-23 Feb) a big warm up for much of the Eastern half of the U.S. with the nation likely to trend +9.4F warmer than last year and 5th warmest of the past 35 years. This is a good start for very early Spring merchandise sales. Rainfall is the least in 3 years but still 4th wettest in 35 years.



If you like BIG BRIGHT FULL MOONS, then you'll love the next four months (Feb - May) as we have four SUPER MOONS in a row! These are simply closer to Earth and therefore appear bigger and brighter.



If you're liking the warmer Winter you should love the Spring ahead as all signs point to a much warmer Spring, warmest in 4 years. And we're getting close with meteorological Spring only 20 days away, daylight savings time 28 days away and the Spring Equinox 38 days away.



The little Captain Kirk (Angelina) is very excited about Spring (watch the video) and she was very excited yesterday to watch the NASA rocket launch from Wallops Island Virginia. We spent the day making rockets, planets and helmets to watch the big launch last night (supposedly visible across much of the East Coast) only to have NASA scrub the launch last minute. :( The little one still had fun and "we have to have helmets to go to Uranus Daddy." The creative mind of a 4 year old.



We hope you have a great week ahead and don't forget to follow us on social media: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out