Captain's Log 9 Jan '22 Milder/Drier then Colder/Snowier

Happy Sunday! :)

Last Week across the World (2-8 Jan) shows the U.S. trending 5.9F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years and 16th coldest of the past 37 years. A very strong week for seasonal merchandise sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



The frigid spot taking a direct hit from the Polar Vortex was Canada where the week trended the coldest in 28 years and a whopping 21.4F colder than last year - huge demand for Winter seasonal categories. Generally milder for the U.K., Europe, Russia, China and Australia, cooler for India and Brazil.



The moderate La Niña continues to keep the U.S. overall relatively dry with dry to drought phases at a 9 years high and 2nd most dry to drought phases in 23 years. 72% of the country is in dry phases vs 62% last year and 46% on average for this time of year.



This week (9-15 January) shows a brief moderating trend but still very cold in the East. For the U.S. overall the week trends 2F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years, 15th warmest in 37 years. Big short lived warm up in the Plains but that won't last! 8% drier than last year, driest in 8 years and snowfall down 40% vs last year, least in 12 years. Another light to moderate snow storm around Saturday in the Northeast.



The 6-day snowfall outlook through Friday shows a not so snowy period until we get to Saturday. Overall the 6-day totals show similar amounts to last year, but that's still 75% below average and 3rd least in 37 years.



Next week (16-22 January) looks like another glancing shot of the Polar Vortex invading the Upper Midwest and eventually into the Northeast later in the week. There is the potential for a bigger snow storm from the Midwest, Ohio Valley into the Northeast the middle of next week. For the U.S. overall the week trends 3.4F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years, 17th coldest of the past 37 years with below average national temperatures. Another strong week for Winter seasonal merchandise. Rainfall up 223% over last year, most in 3 years while snowfall is also the most in 3 years and 9th most in 37 years for the U.S. overall.





The Polar Vortex is still relatively strong and symmetrical which tends to keep the Arctic air bottled up at the North Pole, but it is wobbling toward SE Canada and the Northeast quarter of the U.S. It does show signs of elongating and weakening for the latter half of January suggesting more glancing shots of Arctic air are likely from the Plains to the Northeast U.S.



The 2-week world aggregate outlook (9-22 January) shows the coldest spots relative to average are SE Canada, NE U.S., Western Europe and SW Russia.

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- Captain Kirk out.