Captain's Log 7 Dec '20 Cold East then Nationwide Warm Up!

Happy Monday! :)

Today is Pearl Harbor Day, 79 years ago today. Not so far away in Kaneohe, Hawaii, a much younger Captain Kirk (12 years old) recalls climbing the Navy's "Stair Way to Heaven" to the top of the 2,800 foot Ko'0lau radar dome which offered a panoramic view of the entire Island of Oahu. The Concave configuration of the mountain range in Kaneohe made for a natural radar dome used back in WWII. God Bless all those that were lost on this fateful day.



Last week (29 Nov - 5 Dec) across the World shows the U.S. trending 0.5F cooler than last year and below average, a positive for higher Winter seasonal merchandise after the exceptionally warm November. Rainfall was 89% wetter than last year, most in 4 years and above average nationally. Snowfall was down 59%, least in 3 years and much below average.



Canada has made a wholesale change toward much warmer weather trending 9.5F warmer than last year and warmest in over 35 years. Europe similar to last year while Russia was the cooler spot. China was warmer than last year, but still well below average. India was the warmest in 4 years and Brazil the warmest in 8 years.



The warmer November, social distancing, masks, fewer kids in school in part explains why the U.S. Flu season is near historic lows. Good news for the medical professionals to only combat one virus, not two. This time last year Flu (Type B) was exploding across the U.S. with a peak around Christmas where nearly every state had widespread Flu outbreak. Flu last year was a negative for overall store traffic, this year obviously COVID is a bigger negative which continues to benefit retailers with great e-commerce and fast delivery logistics.



Snowfall season to date across the U.S. is down 43% (below average) from last year which was the snowiest in 23 years. In fact, the past two Falls were very snowy, so the year-over-year drop is one of the largest in decades.



This week (7-13 December) shows the really cold weather in the East moving out as the week progresses with a nationwide warm up. For the U.S. overall the week trends 3.8F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 5th warmest of the past 35 years. Ironically the cold spot remains Florida. Rainfall is the driest in 3 years, 9th driest of the past 35 years with very stormy weather returning to the Pacific Northwest, a common theme for the Winter ahead.



Snowfall looks to be 17% less than last year and 15th least in 35 years with a late week light snow event into the Plains.



November was the warmest in 4 years nationally and 3rd warmest in 35 years with one of the greatest year-over-year changes toward warmer weather in decades, not only a negative for seasonal merchandise sales, but also the ski resort industry here in the East. The local ski resort near wt360 offices in Eastern PA was open last year by 11 November, this year they'll be lucky to be open before Christmas, some 5-6 weeks later. Fortunately the briefly colder period this past weekend and early this week will allow for some snow making (see video for the snow machines in action). U.S. November snowfall was down a whopping 71% vs last year and 6th least in 35 years. Rainfall was up 6% over last year, but still below average nationally, 13th least in 35 years.



Next week (14-20 December) shows more of the same with temperatures trending some 5.9F warmer than last year and 6th warmest of the past 35 years. The cool spots are in the Northern Plains and Alaska. Some of that colder weather will eventually move into the Eastern half of the U.S. for the late December period.



For the World overall, the two week period 7-20 December shows Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China, Alaska and Northern Canada as the cooler spots, better for seasonal category sales.

Have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.