Captain's Log 6 Mar '22 Blast of Winter & Easter Outlook
Captain's Log
Wednesday 9 March 2022 Weekend Update: Coldest and snowiest 2nd weekend of March (12th-13th) in 29 years!
Sunday 6 March 2022 Update:
Every week we're going to feature something interesting in our YEAR-AHEAD forecast, and this week it's about EASTER weekend. While this statistical (trillions upon trillions of statistics) math based forecast combined with 24 climate cycles was produced almost a year ago, it doesn't change once we issued making it a valuable planning tool for retailers, manufacturers of seasonal merchandise, financial services and agriculture. Our technology is used to plan how much seasonal merchandise to buy or make, where to allocate more or less compared to last year, when to promote and advertise, when to markdown, labor scheduling, equity stock performance and more...A YEAR-AHEAD. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Easter weekend likely to be the best in 5 years nationally with strong double digit sales gains for seasonal merchandise. This is a bright spot in an otherwise challenging Q1 (Feb - Apr) this year.
Last week across the World (27 Feb - 5 Mar) was +1.2 warmer than a year ago in the U.S. and 8th warmest of the past 37 years with above average national temperatures. A big flip-flop from the colder and snowier trends to end February. Rainfall was 51% less than last year, driest in 15 years and 4th driest of the past 37 years (much below average). While snowfall was up +128% vs last year, it was still well below average and 5th least of the past 37 years. The chart right shows select countries around the World with Canada the cold spot relative to average and Russia the warm spot.
Flu & COVID trends have plummeted, so the end is near for both. There was a huge spike in December for both suggesting widespread exposure and illness with Flu & the Omicron COVID variant, but like most pandemics, they end after about 2 years. Appears that's the case here.
This week (6-12 March) shows an invasion of the Polar Vortex moving into the West and Central States and modifying as it moves East. Near record warmth ahead of the cold front in the East, but temperatures will plummet behind the front in the East early in the week. The U.S. overall looks to trend -6.9F colder than last year and coldest in 23 years for this 2nd week of March. This is a bigger negative for early Spring merchandise sales. Rainfall up +215% vs last year, most in 6 years with above average national rainfall. Severe weather is accompanying this front with deadly tornadoes in the Midwest last night. More severe weather possible in the Southeast before the front sweeps off the coast ushering in much colder weather nationwide.
The 6-day snowfall trends show a couple systems moving out of the Rocky Mountains in the Midwest and Great Lakes. For the 6-day period (6-11 March) snowfall is projected to be +244% more than last year, +38% above average, most in 4 years and 9th most in 37 years.
Next week (13-19 March) trends -1.1F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years, 18th warmest of the past 37 years, but still below average nationally. Rainfall 29% drier than last year, least in 3 years but still 13th wettest of the past 37 year and above average. Need to watch for more severe weather in the Southeast. Snowfall looks to be the least in 10 years.
The 2-week World Outlook (6-19 March) shows the colder trends in Canada, the Western 2/3rds of the U.S., Southern and Eastern Europe and much of Russia. A big warm up across China and the Middle East.
Don't forget to "Spring Ahead" on Sunday 13 March 2am EDT as daylight savings time returns!
Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.
Sunday 6 March 2022 Update:
Every week we're going to feature something interesting in our YEAR-AHEAD forecast, and this week it's about EASTER weekend. While this statistical (trillions upon trillions of statistics) math based forecast combined with 24 climate cycles was produced almost a year ago, it doesn't change once we issued making it a valuable planning tool for retailers, manufacturers of seasonal merchandise, financial services and agriculture. Our technology is used to plan how much seasonal merchandise to buy or make, where to allocate more or less compared to last year, when to promote and advertise, when to markdown, labor scheduling, equity stock performance and more...A YEAR-AHEAD. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Easter weekend likely to be the best in 5 years nationally with strong double digit sales gains for seasonal merchandise. This is a bright spot in an otherwise challenging Q1 (Feb - Apr) this year.
Last week across the World (27 Feb - 5 Mar) was +1.2 warmer than a year ago in the U.S. and 8th warmest of the past 37 years with above average national temperatures. A big flip-flop from the colder and snowier trends to end February. Rainfall was 51% less than last year, driest in 15 years and 4th driest of the past 37 years (much below average). While snowfall was up +128% vs last year, it was still well below average and 5th least of the past 37 years. The chart right shows select countries around the World with Canada the cold spot relative to average and Russia the warm spot.
Flu & COVID trends have plummeted, so the end is near for both. There was a huge spike in December for both suggesting widespread exposure and illness with Flu & the Omicron COVID variant, but like most pandemics, they end after about 2 years. Appears that's the case here.
This week (6-12 March) shows an invasion of the Polar Vortex moving into the West and Central States and modifying as it moves East. Near record warmth ahead of the cold front in the East, but temperatures will plummet behind the front in the East early in the week. The U.S. overall looks to trend -6.9F colder than last year and coldest in 23 years for this 2nd week of March. This is a bigger negative for early Spring merchandise sales. Rainfall up +215% vs last year, most in 6 years with above average national rainfall. Severe weather is accompanying this front with deadly tornadoes in the Midwest last night. More severe weather possible in the Southeast before the front sweeps off the coast ushering in much colder weather nationwide.
The 6-day snowfall trends show a couple systems moving out of the Rocky Mountains in the Midwest and Great Lakes. For the 6-day period (6-11 March) snowfall is projected to be +244% more than last year, +38% above average, most in 4 years and 9th most in 37 years.
Next week (13-19 March) trends -1.1F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years, 18th warmest of the past 37 years, but still below average nationally. Rainfall 29% drier than last year, least in 3 years but still 13th wettest of the past 37 year and above average. Need to watch for more severe weather in the Southeast. Snowfall looks to be the least in 10 years.
The 2-week World Outlook (6-19 March) shows the colder trends in Canada, the Western 2/3rds of the U.S., Southern and Eastern Europe and much of Russia. A big warm up across China and the Middle East.
Don't forget to "Spring Ahead" on Sunday 13 March 2am EDT as daylight savings time returns!
Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.