Captain's Log 5 Sep '21 Hot/Dry Trend Returning

It's Sunday...hard to say happy with the loss of life with IDA. Prayers for the those forever impacted by this storm.

Last week (29 Aug - 4 Sep) across the World shows the U.S. trending -0.9F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years and 18th coolest of the past 36 years with below average national temperatures. Rainfall was obviously way up with IDA making landfall, +81% wetter than last year, 4th wettest in 36 years for the U.S. overall. Home Center's typically fair better than most retail outlets with extreme events like this, but the cooler/wetter trends are typically favorable for late Summer seasonal merchandise. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Down under in Australia it was the warmest in 8 years, Canada the warmest in 4 years, while Europe was the coolest in 11 years, Russia the coolest in 7 years. Cooler/wetter trends this time of year typically bring higher late Summer/early Fall seasonal merchandise sales.



Still a few tropical threats to watch as we enter the peak of the hurricane season. Major hurricane Larry likely to get close to Bermuda late in the week - certainly something to watch. Season-to-date we're at 12 named systems, so much above average on that front.



While there were some stronger tornadoes associated with IDA, even some bigger ones here in PA -NJ, the season overall is still way below average nationally with 974 tornadoes to date (17% below average, 15 below last year and in the bottom 20 percentile of history for least active season).



This week (5-11 September) shows a much warmer/drier trend ahead with the U.S. up 3.7F degrees warmer than last year, 7th warmest in 36 years. Rainfall down a whopping 70% vs last year and driest in 16 years, 2nd driest in over 36 years for the nation overall. This is a plus for folks cleaning up from IDA but a huge negative for allergy and asthma sufferers as we enter the peak of the ragweed season.



This middle September period looks to trend the warmest in 5 years and driest in 36 years which is ideal conditions for suspending pollen and pollution in the air for long periods of time. Our Power of 1 Degree technology shows for every 1F warmer year-over-year there is a 1% to 3% increase in allergy and asthma medication sales making this the worst peak allergy season in 5 to 36 years. Good for sales, bad for the 80 million people in the U.S. that suffer from Asthma.



Next week (12-18 September) trends even warmer with the U.S. +4.4F warmer than last year and 4th warmest of the past 36 years. Driest in 6 years and 38% less than a year ago. These are unfavorable trends for late Summer-early Fall seasonal merchandise sales. Excess inventory likely to be a bigger problem this year with a much warmer start to Fall than a year ago.



The 2-week World outlook shows areas that had a cooler week last week, warming up.

We hope you have a great Labor Day, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.