Captain's Log 5 Oct 2020 More Hurricanes

Happy Monday! :)

Last week (27 Sep - 3 Oct) across the world shows the very cold trends in the Eastern half of the U.S., hot West but overall the country was the coldest in 11 years for the last week of the retail September. Canada was on the warm side trending warmest in 10 years, Russia overall warmest in 8 years but cooler trends across Europe and Australia. Brazil was the hottest in over 35 years in their Spring season. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Dry to drought-like conditions continue to expand with 62% of the U.S. in DO-D4 phases, driest in 8 years as WTI indicated a year-ahead. This cycle will expand into 2021 as well and very well could challenge the 2002 and 2012 seasons when over 80% of the country was dry.



If you like all things Ag, check out our weekly and monthly longer lead stories on Successful Farming's Agriculture.com. It's both high level season ahead outlooks and current hot weather topics, some of what our FarmCast farmers get a year-ahead. If you haven't tried FarmCast, it's a low cost solution for farmers, every farm, mile on Earth.



Tornadoes are one metric that is down with the drought cycle and still trending down 31% vs last year, 6% below average and down a whopping 46% vs the hyper-active 2011 season.



What thing that's now down is tropical activity as we continue on a record shattering pace with 26 named systems already, a near certainty we'll crush the 2005 record season. WTI had projected a year-ago that there would be the most systems since 2005.



Thursday-Friday this week we'll likely be dealing with a strong hurricane (Delta) again impacting the Louisiana, North Central Gulf of Mexico. It's just not Louisiana's year this year with landfall after landfall.



This week (5-11 Oct) shows a bigger nationwide warm up with the week trending 3.7F warmer than last year, 4th warmest in 35 years with much above average temperatures. Fortunately a bit of a pattern shift for the West with some cooler and wetter conditions that should help fire fighters get control of the wild fires plaguing the West for months. Rainfall is the driest in 5 years with most of the rain with Delta and in the Pacific Northwest. The very dry conditions is great for farmers harvesting and much better than last year when a major snow storm impacted the Rockies, Plains and Upper Midwest.



Next week (12-18 Oct) a very warm middle October period trending 4.7F warmer than last year and again 4th warmest in 35 years for the U.S. overall. Still need to watch the tropics as very likely the next few weeks will be an active end to this record shattering season.



Looking ahead, our long range outlook issued to clients a year-ago has done exceptionally well capturing the coldest September in 8 years and now the bigger warmer trends going into November.



We do think Winter arrives on time for later December, but overall a milder than average Winter with below average national snowfall, even if up a bit from last Winter.



We hope yOu have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.