Captain's Log 4 Jan 2021 Mild U.S. Cold Europe to Asia

Happy 1st Monday in 2021! :)

The 5-week retail December (29 Nov - 2 Jan) is in the history books and it was a tad more favorable for seasonal merchandise sales in the U.S. This middle month of Q4 trended 1.5F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years but still 12th warmest of the past 35 years for the U.S. overall. Rainfall was 6% less than a year ago, driest in 3 years but still 10th wettest of the past 35 years. Snowfall was up 20% for the most in 3 years, but still 16th least of the past 35 years and below average nationally despite the big middle December Northeast storm. These trends were much more favorable than November for seasonal merchandise and on-line sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



U.S. season-t0-date snowfall shows the U.S. trending 12% less than last year, 4% below average and 18th least in 35 years.



Last week (27 Dec - 3 Jan) around the World shows the really cold spots more toward Europe which was the coldest in 6 years, Russia coldest in 8 years and Australia coldest in 14 years (Summer down under). The U.S. trended 3.4F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years but still 13th warmest of the past 35 years. 4% drier than a year ago, driest in 3 years, but still 5th wettest of the past 35 years. Snowfall was up 26% with a Deep South event, most in 3 years but still only 15th most of the past 35 years and below average nationally.



The very strong and symmetrical Polar Vortex broke up into two vortex's sending very cold weather into parts of Europe, Russia and China. That looks to be the general trend for the next two weeks while North America remains well above average. May see some brief cold intrusion into the Northeastern U.S. later January, but most likely the pattern remains typical La Nina which brings a fast zonal flow that's not overly conducive to major snow storms.



This week (4-10 January) doesn't show much cold weather across the U.S., but trending 1.4F colder than last year's very warm conditions. A drier pattern trending driest in 9 years and 6th driest of the past 35 years, while snowfall is the most in 3 years, still below average nationally.



The 6-day snowfall outlook shows mainly very light systems across the U.S.



Next week (11-17 January) brings more of the same with the U.S. trending 3.6F colder than last year, but still 15th warmest of the past 35 years. The East Coast and Southeast are the bright spots for much higher seasonal category sales vs a year ago. Driest in 12 years and 6th driest in 35 years for the U.S. overall, while snowfall up a bit with the threat for an East Coast event.



The World 2-week outlook (4-17 January) shows much above average trends across North America while the influence of the splitting Polar Vortex brings very cold conditions to parts of Europe, Russia and China. Winter seasonal merchandise sales will show the greatest YOY increase in these regions along with much higher heating consumption.



For Ag-Farm enthusiasts, we've released our 2021 World Ag Outlook which highlights a lot of risk to crops in many areas of the World to include Brazil, China and the U.S.



With 2020 in the history books, we hope you found some bright spots in an obviously challenging year. For us that was a soon to be 5 year old that enjoyed the princess phase...27 and counting! :) We hope and pray that 2021 brings you some peace of mind for a brighter year ahead.



Have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.