Captain's Log 31 Oct '21 Huge Surge in Seasonal Sales!

Happy Sunday! :)

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Last Week (24-30 Oct) across the World showed the U.S. trending +7.4F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 8th warmest of the past 36 years for the U.S. overall. A big negative end to Q3. Rainfall was 60% wetter than last year, wettest in 6 years and 2nd wettest of the past 36 years nationally. Snowfall was 99% less than a year ago across population centers, least in 14 years and 5th least in 36 years.



Warmer spots across the World were up in Canada warmest in 4 years, U.K. warmest in 7 years, Russia warmest in 8 years, China warmest in 9 years and Australia warmer than LY. Europe, India and Brazil were cooler than a year ago.



A recap of October 2021 shows the U.S. making a wholesale change from last year with the #1 hottest October in over 36 years compared to last year's coldest October in 10 years. A very unfavorable trend for Fall seasonal merchandise sales. If there was a bright spot, it was the Southwest U.S. Rainfall was 24% wetter than a year ago, 4th wettest in 36 years which is much above average. Snowfall across 260 major population centers was down 88% vs last year and least in 4 years. Last year was the snowiest October in 29 years so again a big negative trend for snowfall categories so far this Fall.



This week (31 Oct - 6 Nov) FINALLY shows a very favorable week for Fall merchandise sales now that we've entered Q4 (Nov - Jan). The week overall looks to trend -7.2F colder than last year, 13th coldest of the past 36 years with below average national temperatures. Rainfall up a whopping 236% vs last year making it the wettest in 3 years, 15th wettest in 36 years. Snowfall again least in 5 years and much below average, but there will be some of the white stuff moving through the Central Rockies and light lake effect later this week.



The National Hurricane Center named the 21st storm of the season - Wanda - which means we've expired the initial list of names and now we start over with a new set. Weather Trends had the highest pre-season total of 23 named storms this year and we have a month left in the season to reach that. A costly season indeed, especially with IDA - over $50B in damages from LA to NY.



The week ahead snowfall outlook shows some light snow in the Rockies and the seasons first snow showers across the Great Lakes.



Next Week (7-13 Nov) shows the colder weather abating a bit and confined to the Southeast while the Central U.S. has a big warm up. The U.S. overall looks to trend 2.2F cooler than last year but still 14th warmest of the past 36 years. Rainfall similarly wet to last year and 5th wettest of the past 36 years. Snowfall again remains light and least in 5 years nationally.

We'll end with a brief explanation of how Weather Trends year-ahead forecasts (we employ trillions upon trillions of statistics and 24 climate cycle trends) are not only much more detailed than traditional meteorology (physics based) but also more accurate.



While NOAA has a similar overall pattern to what Weather Trends projected a year-ahead for the Winter ahead there are some big differences, especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast. NOAA's Winter outlook (top left) shows milder south, colder north with heavier precipitation to the North and drier to the South. Despite being a year-ahead, Weather Trends forecasts outperform NOAA's month ahead forecast 83% of the time over the past decade (see full audit here). Weather Trends Winter forecast are the maps bottom.



The next HUGE difference is the detail Weather Trends year-ahead forecasts provide clients for both weather and their seasonal sales forecasts. Weekly year-ahead projections for both, everywhere on Earth. September as an example shows Weather Trends year-ahead daily forecast in New York City had an error rate of 3.9 degrees. This compares to the Weather Industries DAY 5 short range forecast. So, something WTI said a year ago is as good as a day 5 short range forecast. In almost all cases, WTI's year-ahead forecast is better than any week 2 (day 7-14) short range forecast. The power of 1 degree...see what it means for your business.

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- Captain Kirk out.