Captain's Log 3 Aug '20 Time to Start Watching Tropics!

Happy 1st Monday in August! :)

Can you believe it's already August? That means Q2 (May - July) is in the history books with earnings season upon us. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



We shared some of our insights with our financial services firms last week, highlighting a favorable weather quarter here in the U.S. (warmer and drier than last year) and Canada but a bit less favorable across Europe (coolest in 6 years and wetter).



The quarters ahead are OK for back2school but then a very high risk Q3 Fall season with a much warmer and drier season ahead with high risk for major hurricane risk along the coasts. This will be a very unfavorable Fall for cold seasonal merchandise after two back2back cold/snowy Falls across the U.S. Expect a huge pent up surge in demand for Winter merchandise in late December.



Our Power of 1 Degree technology quantifies just how soft seasonal sales will be. Chicago as an example shows temperatures nearly 10F warmer than last year with significant declines in seasonal sales.



The good news about a warmer and drier Fall is a benefit to farmer's harvesting what should be a near record yield but also for a 5-week delayed start to the Flu season. Australia is frequently one area to monitor to get a pulse of what our Flu season will look like. Flu down under is near record lows which bodes well for the U.S.



But in the near term the weather headlines will very likely focus on non-stop hurricane threats as we get into the latter half of August into October. Many weather firms have now upped their seasonal forecast storm totals to WTI's level projected a year ago!



Soon to be Hurricane Isaias will make landfall today in the Carolina's and then track just inland up the East Coast. This puts the NC to Long Island NY areas in the right front quadrant of the storm, so urban street flooding from 3-6" of rain is likely along with beach erosion up and down the East Coast, especially the NC to S NJ areas.



This week (3-9 August) as Isaias goes up the East Coast, cooler weather dominates the Central U.S. For the U.S. overall the week trends 1.4F cooler than last year but still 15th warmest of the past 35 years with similar rainfall to last year, 12th wettest in 35 years.



Next week (10-16 August) brings a brief lull in tropical threats to the U.S. but several climate cycles suggest a very active latter half of August into September. Looks like a good Summer clearance week with almost a nationwide surge of hot and humid weather. The U.S. overall trends the warmest in 4 years and 5th warmest of the past 35 years for this middle August period.



The 2-week summary across the world shows the Central U.S. as the cool spot along with Europe.



We hope you're enjoying these dog days of Summer with your family, it's going by at warp speed. Hopefully our fun spot in Ocean City Maryland doesn't get too hard hit by Isaias, certainly some urban street flooding for this flood prone area.

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Kirk out.