Captain's Log 3 Apr '22 Strong Easter on the way!

Happy first Sunday of April! :)

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Spring has certainly been volatile and that will continue for the months ahead. The good news, the major holidays here in Spring all seem to be in very favorable periods over much warmer weather. After a few weeks of cooler year-over-year trends, we're looking much better as we get to next week for Spring merchandise sales.



Last week (27 March - 2 April) across the World shows the U.S. again trending -1.4F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years, 11th coldest in 37 years with below average national temperatures. Overall negative for Spring merchandise sales. Rainfall was up +7%, wettest in 4 years but still 19th driest of the past 37 years with below average rainfall. Snow was up +190% over last year but still 15th least in 37 years. The least favorable areas for Spring merchandise was in the North Central and Eastern U.S. The West and Rockies were much better.



Tornadoes continue their fast pace with 341 already this year, up +56% vs last year, +47% above average, most in 5 years and in the top 15% of history. These trends likely to continue through the Spring season.



Drought improved a tad, but still the most dry-to-drought conditions in over 22 years. 70% of the country is still in dry to drought phases compared to last year when 64% was very dry. Average is about 47% for this time of year.



This week (3-9 April) continues the colder trends with the nation trending -6.1F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years, 17th coldest of the past 37 years with below average national temperatures. The Central U.S. is by far the worst area while California is the best. Rainfall up +15% vs last year, wettest in 3 years and 11th wettest of the past 37 years with above average national rainfall. Snow is the most in 4 years but still below average. Overall, these are negative trends for the final month of Q1.



The 6-day snowfall outlook stills show snow impacting 22% of the country with +200% more snow than last year, most in 4 years but that's still -60% below average and 9th least in 37 years.



Next Week (10-16 April) shows a bit of a pattern shift with much warmer weather moving into the Central and Eastern U.S. for the week before Easter. The West cools off. For the U.S. overall the important week trends +2.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 12th warmest of the past 37 years with above average national temperatures. Rainfall looks to be -20% less than a year ago, driest in 5 years and 12th driest of the past 37 years with very little snow - least in 37+ years. An overall very strong week for Spring merchandise.



The 2-week World outlook shows improving trends in the U.S. and Canada. China to Northern Africa very warm.

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- Captain Kirk out.