Captain's Log 28 May '22 Much Warmer Memorial Day

Happy Saturday! :)

A recap of last week (22-28 May) across the World shows the U.S. trending -1.3F cooler than last year, coolest in 5 years and 10th coolest in 37 years with below average national temperatures. This was a negative trend for Spring seasonal merchandise sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Rainfall was +49% wetter than last year, wettest in 7 years and 3rd wettest in 37 years with much above average national precipitation. This time of year a warmer/drier pattern YOY is better for overall store traffic and seasonal merchandise sales. The U.K., Europe and China had the warmer and drier trends for more favorable seasonal sales.



A recap of Meteorological Spring (1 March - 31 May) shows the U.S. trending just +0.1F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 8th warmest of the past 37 years. But, volatility was obvious with a warmer March, much colder April and now warmer May. Rainfall was up +14% vs last year and 16th wettest in 37 years.



This week is the start of the 2022 Atlantic Basin hurricane season with all forecasts generally much above average. Weather Trends was on CNBC Fast Money Friday evening discussing our outlook of 20 named systems, 4th most active in 166 years with high risk threats to TX, FL and the Northeast. Made host Melissa and the team laugh as we talked about how even Mouse Trap sales surge with a hurricane.



This week (29 May - 4 June) shows a much better latter half of the Memorial Day weekend in the Northeast with the week overall trending +0/7F warmer than last year, 12th warmest of the past 37 years with above average national temperatures. Particularly favorable for Spring category sales from TX to the Northeast, while the Western half of the U.S. is much less favorable. Rainfall down -32% vs last year, least in 11 years and 4th driest in 37 years.



Next week (5-11 June) -4.4F cooler than last year's near record hot start to June. Overall, the 17th coolest in 37 years with below average national temperatures. The cool weather gives way to a warmer pattern in the Western U.S. with the cool trends moving in the Upper Midwest. Rainfall -4% drier than last year, driest in 4 years and 15th driest in 37 years. The stormy spot likely to be the Southeast Coast and Florida.



The 2-week World outlook (29 May - 11 Jun) shows continued favorable weather trends from TX to the Northeast while the Northwest U.S. remains very unfavorable. The U.K. finally turns cooler which will likely suppress sales after a few very strong and warm weeks.

We hope you have a great Memorial Day weekend, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out