Captain's Log 23 Nov '24 Historic COLD Thanksgiving Weekend!
Captain's Log
23 Nov '24: Happy Saturday! :)
With a late Thanksgiving this year, there are only 32 days until Christmas! I'm sure that just sent some of you into panic mode, us included. :) CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Thanksgiving - Black Friday weekend is going to be historic in terms of COLD, coldest in over 39 years with the threat of another major snow storm in the Northeast. This will drive exceptional, record seasonal category sales with a huge pent-up demand surge in sales. Last year was a strong Thanksgiving weekend, but this year even better after the warmest/driest October on record.
La Niña may not happen with a weak negative ENSO phase and then back to a Neutral phase. This is good news if you want a colder snowier Winter. But, the year-over-year ocean temperatures clearly a show a big change from last year's El Niño pattern, so certainly some La Nina like weather in the months ahead.
A quick recap of the 2024 Hurricane Season that ends 30 November. It was a much above average season for all metrics with 5 landfalling hurricanes and a catastrophic year in terms of damage.
The Severe Weather Season was equally bad in terms of Tornadoes that were the most in 13 years with many deadly and destructive events, especially in May and Sept-Oct with the landfalling Florida hurricanes. Hail was below average while Wind cases were less than last year but still above average.
With the exceptionally warm/dry October, FLU cases are the least in 3 years and much below the historic intense season that peaked at Thanksgiving in 2022. This year is more likely to peak in January for a late peak.
Snowfall over the past 3 days (21-23 Nov) shows the record breaking snowstorm that hit the Pocono Mountains of PA, NW New Jersey and Southern New York with 18-24"+ snow.
The season-to-date snowfall through the 22nd (doesn't show the complete totals in the Northeast) shows the heavier snow from the Upper Midwest to the Appalachians.
Most World regions are showing at least 300% more snow than last year.
Season-to-date World snowfall.
Snow Cover this morning was 16% of the U.S. vs only 9% last year. This is about average for middle November.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (23-28 November) shows another wide swath of snow traversing the entire U.S. for the days prior to Thanksgiving. Travel headaches for sure. A bigger Northeast storm is likely right after this period on Black Friday.
The 14-day storm tracks show two more big snowstorm threats for the Great Lakes and Northeast with the Lake Effect snowmachine kicking in much earlier than last year.
The Polar Vortex shows some weakening with a wobble right into the Great Lakes - Northeast ushering a frigid end to November and beginning of December.
Last Week (17-23 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 12 years and 8th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was up +20% vs LY, most in 9 years and 6th most in 39 years while snowfall was up +88% over LY and 16th least of the past 39 years. The Pacific Northwest was hard hit by one of the strongest Pacific storms on record while the Southern Northeast had a near historic early high elevation snowstorm with 1-2+ feet. The U.K. was frigid with exceptional demand for Fall merchandise.
This Week (24-30 Nov) Thanksgiving shows the Polar Vortex beginning to move into the U.S. The week overall is +3F warmer than last year and 13th coldest in 39 years with below average temperatures, but this gets much colder for the holiday weekend. Rainfall is up +64% vs last but 13th driest in 39 years, while snowfall is up +31%, most in 5 years and 12th most in 39 years. Another big snowstorm threat for the Northeast over Thanksgiving weekend. These are exceptional trends for a huge surge in seasonal sales. On-line tends to do better with stormy weather which can hurt store traffic.
Next week (1-7 Dec) is the start of Meteorological Winter (Dec - Feb) and it's coming in like a lion. The U.S. overall trends -9.9F colder than last year, coldest in 14 years and 7th coldest of the past 39 years. Rainfall down -21% vs last year but snowfall up a whopping +358%, most in 11 years and 8th most in 39 years. This is a very strong start to the holiday shopping season, favoring seasonal category must have merchandise.
The World 2-week outlook (24 Nov - 7 Dec) shows the U.S. and Canada taking the brunt of the Polar Vortex wobble while it warms up in Europe.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook shows a stormy snowy pattern across the U.S., especially the Northeast - Great Lakes and Eastern Canada. Wet across Europe and Brazil benefiting their crops.
Have a great Thanksgiving weekend and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
With a late Thanksgiving this year, there are only 32 days until Christmas! I'm sure that just sent some of you into panic mode, us included. :) CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Thanksgiving - Black Friday weekend is going to be historic in terms of COLD, coldest in over 39 years with the threat of another major snow storm in the Northeast. This will drive exceptional, record seasonal category sales with a huge pent-up demand surge in sales. Last year was a strong Thanksgiving weekend, but this year even better after the warmest/driest October on record.
La Niña may not happen with a weak negative ENSO phase and then back to a Neutral phase. This is good news if you want a colder snowier Winter. But, the year-over-year ocean temperatures clearly a show a big change from last year's El Niño pattern, so certainly some La Nina like weather in the months ahead.
A quick recap of the 2024 Hurricane Season that ends 30 November. It was a much above average season for all metrics with 5 landfalling hurricanes and a catastrophic year in terms of damage.
The Severe Weather Season was equally bad in terms of Tornadoes that were the most in 13 years with many deadly and destructive events, especially in May and Sept-Oct with the landfalling Florida hurricanes. Hail was below average while Wind cases were less than last year but still above average.
With the exceptionally warm/dry October, FLU cases are the least in 3 years and much below the historic intense season that peaked at Thanksgiving in 2022. This year is more likely to peak in January for a late peak.
Snowfall over the past 3 days (21-23 Nov) shows the record breaking snowstorm that hit the Pocono Mountains of PA, NW New Jersey and Southern New York with 18-24"+ snow.
The season-to-date snowfall through the 22nd (doesn't show the complete totals in the Northeast) shows the heavier snow from the Upper Midwest to the Appalachians.
Most World regions are showing at least 300% more snow than last year.
Season-to-date World snowfall.
Snow Cover this morning was 16% of the U.S. vs only 9% last year. This is about average for middle November.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (23-28 November) shows another wide swath of snow traversing the entire U.S. for the days prior to Thanksgiving. Travel headaches for sure. A bigger Northeast storm is likely right after this period on Black Friday.
The 14-day storm tracks show two more big snowstorm threats for the Great Lakes and Northeast with the Lake Effect snowmachine kicking in much earlier than last year.
The Polar Vortex shows some weakening with a wobble right into the Great Lakes - Northeast ushering a frigid end to November and beginning of December.
Last Week (17-23 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 12 years and 8th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was up +20% vs LY, most in 9 years and 6th most in 39 years while snowfall was up +88% over LY and 16th least of the past 39 years. The Pacific Northwest was hard hit by one of the strongest Pacific storms on record while the Southern Northeast had a near historic early high elevation snowstorm with 1-2+ feet. The U.K. was frigid with exceptional demand for Fall merchandise.
This Week (24-30 Nov) Thanksgiving shows the Polar Vortex beginning to move into the U.S. The week overall is +3F warmer than last year and 13th coldest in 39 years with below average temperatures, but this gets much colder for the holiday weekend. Rainfall is up +64% vs last but 13th driest in 39 years, while snowfall is up +31%, most in 5 years and 12th most in 39 years. Another big snowstorm threat for the Northeast over Thanksgiving weekend. These are exceptional trends for a huge surge in seasonal sales. On-line tends to do better with stormy weather which can hurt store traffic.
Next week (1-7 Dec) is the start of Meteorological Winter (Dec - Feb) and it's coming in like a lion. The U.S. overall trends -9.9F colder than last year, coldest in 14 years and 7th coldest of the past 39 years. Rainfall down -21% vs last year but snowfall up a whopping +358%, most in 11 years and 8th most in 39 years. This is a very strong start to the holiday shopping season, favoring seasonal category must have merchandise.
The World 2-week outlook (24 Nov - 7 Dec) shows the U.S. and Canada taking the brunt of the Polar Vortex wobble while it warms up in Europe.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook shows a stormy snowy pattern across the U.S., especially the Northeast - Great Lakes and Eastern Canada. Wet across Europe and Brazil benefiting their crops.
Have a great Thanksgiving weekend and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out