Captain's Log 22 August '21 Tropical Threats Continue

Happy Sunday! :)

The World recap for weekending 21 August shows the U.S. trending similar temperatures, 7th warmest in 36 years, while rainfall was 115% wetter than last year and 4th wettest of the past 36 years. This time of year, cooler and wetter trends are more favorable for back2school retail seasonal sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Russia was the hot spot trending record hottest in over 36 years and driest in 4. Brazil also warmed up trending warmest in 9 years and continued drought with the driest trends in 7 years with much below average precipitation. Expect most crop production in Brazil to be well below the current expectations as La Nina looks to strengthen once again bringing a prolonged drought well into 2022.



Here in the U.S. Tropical Storm #8 Henri made landfall Sunday afternoon on the Rhode Island - Connecticut border, the 4th tropical storm to make landfall this season. Heavy rain and flooding was the biggest impact from Henri.



This week (22-28 August) the U.S. looks to trend 1F cooler than last year but that's still near record hot trending 2nd hottest end to August in 36 years with much above average national temperatures, especially from the Central U.S. to the Northeast. Very cool in the Northwest and Rockies where snow has already fallen, so a good start for early Fall merchandise out west. Rainfall down 29% vs last year, driest in 6 years and 9th driest of the past 36 years after the wet week last week.



Next week (29 August - 4 September) need to watch the tropics with a couple of threats possible for the Gulf of Mexico from TX to FL. The week overall should trend +0.3F warmer than last year, 27% wetter depending on where the tropical systems hit in the Gulf. Models hinting at a couple threats from TX to FL!



Again this time of year cooler/wetter trends are more favorable for early Fall seasonal merchandise, so not overly positive for the Sept - Oct time frame. Mounting inventory will be a concern with a slowdown in consumer spending and unfavorable weather-sales trends.



The 2-week World outlook (22 Aug - 4 Sep) shows more of the same here in the U.S. with the more favorable cooler trends developing in the Western part of North America, Europe while much of the rest of the World is on the warm side.



The U.S. year-over-year weather trends through December show a tough stretch ahead with expectations that Q3 (Aug - Oct) will be quite soft for the retail industry. A much colder/snowier Q4 likely and that might be too much of a good thing, but certainly a boost for must have cold seasonal categories.



Hopefully we haven't depressed you too much, we'll end with some relaxing music and tour of our new HQ here in downtown Bethlehem, PA (see video).

Have a great week ahead and follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.