Captain's Log 20 July '24 Coolest & Wettest Late July in 5 Years
Captain's Log
20 July '24: Happy Saturday! :)
We are very nearing an official La Nina as the Equatorial Pacific Ocean cools rapidly. Models differ on strength from weak to strong, but agree it weakens in early 2025. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Drought has completed shifted out of the Corn Belt Central U.S. into the Southeast. 50% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases vs 49% last year, but again a big shift out of the U.S. Corn Belt where corn prices have plummeted below $4.
Tornadoes and wind events continue to add up trending the most in 13 years as WTI projected a year-ahead. Hail events are down vs last year.
Last week (14-20 July) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.3F warmer than last year and 12th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was down -18% vs last year, but still 17th wettest of the past 39 years and above average nationally. Hot and Dry in Canada particularly in the Western half of the country. Australia was the cold and wet spot with the coldest condition in 9 years.
The 14-day storm track shows the Bermuda High pressure splitting a bit, this will eventually decrease the dust coming off Africa allowing the tropics to once again become more active as we transition into middle August - through October.
This week (21-27 July) shows a major cool down from the South Central U.S. into the Middle Atlantic. The U.S. overall trends -1.6F cooler than last year, coolest in 5 years and 15th warmest of the past 39 years. The West and Northwest remain the very hot spots. Rainfall is up +69% vs last year, most in 6 years and 2nd wettest of the past 39 years. Much needed rain for the drought areas of the Southeast. These cooler/wetter trends will create a slow down in seasonal category sales.
Next week (28 July - 3 Aug) will live up to it's name as the Dog Days of Summer with the heat expanding back into the Central U.S. and Northeast. The U.S. overall trends +2.7F warmer than last year and #1 warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall down -11% vs last year, least in 5 years and 15th driest of the past 39 years. This is favorable for hot consumable seasonal categories like cold beverages, vegetables and pool chemicals.
The World 2-week outlook (21 July - 3 August) shows the hottest weather expanding across most of Canada and into the Central US. while Central Europe remains on the cool side.
World rainfall shows wet weather continue across the U.S. South and East with drier weather West. The UK and Western Europe also on the dry side.
If you've been to the Northeast beaches as of late you'll hear many complaining about how cold the water is, trending 5-10F colder than this time last Summer. This may be one reason why the Whale and Fish populations are overly abundant this Summer. Upwelling tends to bring nutrients to the surface, but also makes the water colder. On a recent boat excursion off New Jersey we saw at least a dozen Humpback whales, most in many years per the boat staff. See today's video for the close up encounter.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.
We are very nearing an official La Nina as the Equatorial Pacific Ocean cools rapidly. Models differ on strength from weak to strong, but agree it weakens in early 2025. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Drought has completed shifted out of the Corn Belt Central U.S. into the Southeast. 50% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases vs 49% last year, but again a big shift out of the U.S. Corn Belt where corn prices have plummeted below $4.
Tornadoes and wind events continue to add up trending the most in 13 years as WTI projected a year-ahead. Hail events are down vs last year.
Last week (14-20 July) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.3F warmer than last year and 12th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was down -18% vs last year, but still 17th wettest of the past 39 years and above average nationally. Hot and Dry in Canada particularly in the Western half of the country. Australia was the cold and wet spot with the coldest condition in 9 years.
The 14-day storm track shows the Bermuda High pressure splitting a bit, this will eventually decrease the dust coming off Africa allowing the tropics to once again become more active as we transition into middle August - through October.
This week (21-27 July) shows a major cool down from the South Central U.S. into the Middle Atlantic. The U.S. overall trends -1.6F cooler than last year, coolest in 5 years and 15th warmest of the past 39 years. The West and Northwest remain the very hot spots. Rainfall is up +69% vs last year, most in 6 years and 2nd wettest of the past 39 years. Much needed rain for the drought areas of the Southeast. These cooler/wetter trends will create a slow down in seasonal category sales.
Next week (28 July - 3 Aug) will live up to it's name as the Dog Days of Summer with the heat expanding back into the Central U.S. and Northeast. The U.S. overall trends +2.7F warmer than last year and #1 warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall down -11% vs last year, least in 5 years and 15th driest of the past 39 years. This is favorable for hot consumable seasonal categories like cold beverages, vegetables and pool chemicals.
The World 2-week outlook (21 July - 3 August) shows the hottest weather expanding across most of Canada and into the Central US. while Central Europe remains on the cool side.
World rainfall shows wet weather continue across the U.S. South and East with drier weather West. The UK and Western Europe also on the dry side.
If you've been to the Northeast beaches as of late you'll hear many complaining about how cold the water is, trending 5-10F colder than this time last Summer. This may be one reason why the Whale and Fish populations are overly abundant this Summer. Upwelling tends to bring nutrients to the surface, but also makes the water colder. On a recent boat excursion off New Jersey we saw at least a dozen Humpback whales, most in many years per the boat staff. See today's video for the close up encounter.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.