Captain's Log 18 Aug '24 Fall Weather & Sales Outlook
Captain's Log
18 Aug '24: Happy Sunday! :)
We're day 78 into the 2024 hurricane season with 104 days left...a long way to go. Hurricane Ernesto (#5) made direct landfall (17 Aug) in Bermuda as the 12th hurricane to directly cross over the Island in the past 174 years. Impact was relatively minimal with sustained winds of 58mph, gusts 84mph and 8.9" of rain in Hamilton, Bermuda. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The Atlantic basin remains above average in all tropical metrics, while all other areas of the World trend below average.
Storm tracks over the next 14 days show several systems coming off Africa as we start the core Cape Verde Hurricane Season. Any of these could become the next named storm as they head West toward North America.
Starting to see some response in the atmosphere to a developing La Niña like pattern, even though we're not officially in La Niña just yet. Drought was erased in the Southeast thanks to Debby. The U.S. Corn Belt is likely to have record crop yields which explains why Corn prices have plummeted to 4-year lows at $3.75 Bu/Ac with drought limited to the far Eastern Corn Belt in Ohio.
Drought has expanded in the Western U.S. vs this time last year, while the severe drought in the Heartland and the South has been replaced with flooding in 2024. The one thing that will make this La Niña very different is the influence of tons of extra atmospheric moisture from the Tonga Volcano back in Jan 2022. A very different type of weather impact than the Pinatubo Volcano back in June 1991.
Severe weather season for tornadoes, hail, wind events has slowed, but still the most active tornado season in 13 years as Weather Trends warned last year. Tornadoes are likely to be limited to landfalling hurricanes in the months ahead.
Last week (11-17 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. trending -1.0F cooler than last year but still 14th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was down -26% vs a year ago and 10th least in 39 years. These trends tend to keep consumers in the Summer mindset with a negative impact on Back2School sales that do better in colder/wetter late Summer periods.
This week (18-24 Aug) trends even cooler with national temperatures trending -2.7F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years and 19th warmest of the past 39 years. Particularly cool in the East and West Coast. Rainfall down -12% vs last year, driest in 21 years and 2nd driest in 39 years. The dry pattern again likely keeps consumers thinking outdoor activities as opposed to B2S apparel shopping, basic supplies not weather sensitive. Hot 90F days are down -34% vs this week last year.
Next week (25-31 Aug) shows a slight warming trend of +0.5F warmer than a year ago and 9th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall up +6% vs last year and 16th wettest in 39 years. Drought and fire risk continue to be most prominent in the Western U.S.
The World 2-week outlook (18-31 Aug) shows the overall cooler trends in the Eastern U.S. but expanding warmth in Eastern Europe, Canada and China. Heavy rainfall with tropical waves across Central Africa suggests pending risk for hurricanes in the U.S. and Caribbean in the weeks ahead.
We end today with our Power of 1 Degree technology and how it helps retailers and suppliers better predict seasonal category sales a year-ahead. While the PO1 does vary by location, a simple national average rule of thumb helps to quantify how everyday changes in weather are having a significant influence on seasonal sales. We'll analyze the next 3 big Fall holiday weather and expected sales trends:
Columbus Day week (13-19 Oct) shows the nation trending +1.5F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years which would be unfavorable for Fall seasonal sales. A slight benefit to overall store traffic. The most favorable area looks to be the Western U.S.
Thanksgiving period (24-30 Nov) shows a -2F cooler trend than last year, but only because the holiday is 5 days later this year. The East is generally favorable for seasonal sales to kick off the holiday shopping season.
Christmas week (22-28 Dec) looks to be exceptional for seasonal sales with temperatures trending -11F cooler than last year and coolest in 7 years. Cold and snowier conditions can be a bigger negative for store traffic but a plus for on-line sales. Seasonal sales are likely to have exceptional YOY sales gains.
We still have plenty of Severe Weather to contend with this Fall from hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding associated with tropical systems and wildfires. Overall, the 2024 season is likely to be the most destructive in 7 years as projected a year ahead.
Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.
We're day 78 into the 2024 hurricane season with 104 days left...a long way to go. Hurricane Ernesto (#5) made direct landfall (17 Aug) in Bermuda as the 12th hurricane to directly cross over the Island in the past 174 years. Impact was relatively minimal with sustained winds of 58mph, gusts 84mph and 8.9" of rain in Hamilton, Bermuda. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The Atlantic basin remains above average in all tropical metrics, while all other areas of the World trend below average.
Storm tracks over the next 14 days show several systems coming off Africa as we start the core Cape Verde Hurricane Season. Any of these could become the next named storm as they head West toward North America.
Starting to see some response in the atmosphere to a developing La Niña like pattern, even though we're not officially in La Niña just yet. Drought was erased in the Southeast thanks to Debby. The U.S. Corn Belt is likely to have record crop yields which explains why Corn prices have plummeted to 4-year lows at $3.75 Bu/Ac with drought limited to the far Eastern Corn Belt in Ohio.
Drought has expanded in the Western U.S. vs this time last year, while the severe drought in the Heartland and the South has been replaced with flooding in 2024. The one thing that will make this La Niña very different is the influence of tons of extra atmospheric moisture from the Tonga Volcano back in Jan 2022. A very different type of weather impact than the Pinatubo Volcano back in June 1991.
Severe weather season for tornadoes, hail, wind events has slowed, but still the most active tornado season in 13 years as Weather Trends warned last year. Tornadoes are likely to be limited to landfalling hurricanes in the months ahead.
Last week (11-17 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. trending -1.0F cooler than last year but still 14th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was down -26% vs a year ago and 10th least in 39 years. These trends tend to keep consumers in the Summer mindset with a negative impact on Back2School sales that do better in colder/wetter late Summer periods.
This week (18-24 Aug) trends even cooler with national temperatures trending -2.7F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years and 19th warmest of the past 39 years. Particularly cool in the East and West Coast. Rainfall down -12% vs last year, driest in 21 years and 2nd driest in 39 years. The dry pattern again likely keeps consumers thinking outdoor activities as opposed to B2S apparel shopping, basic supplies not weather sensitive. Hot 90F days are down -34% vs this week last year.
Next week (25-31 Aug) shows a slight warming trend of +0.5F warmer than a year ago and 9th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall up +6% vs last year and 16th wettest in 39 years. Drought and fire risk continue to be most prominent in the Western U.S.
The World 2-week outlook (18-31 Aug) shows the overall cooler trends in the Eastern U.S. but expanding warmth in Eastern Europe, Canada and China. Heavy rainfall with tropical waves across Central Africa suggests pending risk for hurricanes in the U.S. and Caribbean in the weeks ahead.
We end today with our Power of 1 Degree technology and how it helps retailers and suppliers better predict seasonal category sales a year-ahead. While the PO1 does vary by location, a simple national average rule of thumb helps to quantify how everyday changes in weather are having a significant influence on seasonal sales. We'll analyze the next 3 big Fall holiday weather and expected sales trends:
Columbus Day week (13-19 Oct) shows the nation trending +1.5F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years which would be unfavorable for Fall seasonal sales. A slight benefit to overall store traffic. The most favorable area looks to be the Western U.S.
Thanksgiving period (24-30 Nov) shows a -2F cooler trend than last year, but only because the holiday is 5 days later this year. The East is generally favorable for seasonal sales to kick off the holiday shopping season.
Christmas week (22-28 Dec) looks to be exceptional for seasonal sales with temperatures trending -11F cooler than last year and coolest in 7 years. Cold and snowier conditions can be a bigger negative for store traffic but a plus for on-line sales. Seasonal sales are likely to have exceptional YOY sales gains.
We still have plenty of Severe Weather to contend with this Fall from hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding associated with tropical systems and wildfires. Overall, the 2024 season is likely to be the most destructive in 7 years as projected a year ahead.
Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.