Captain's Log 17 Oct '21 Fall Wholesale Change vs Last Year

Happy Sunday. :)

The weather across the World Last Week (10-16 October) shows the U.S. trending +2.7F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 2nd warmest in 36 years. These are very unfavorable trends for national Fall seasonal merchandise sales. Precipitation was up +32% vs last year and 8th wettest of the past 36 years. Snowfall was very heavy in the Rocky Mountains with the U.S. overall snowfall up 20 times vs last year. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW



Canada was warm as well trending the warmest in 10 years, China the warmest in 5, U.K. and India the warmest in 4 while Brazil and Australia the coolest in 5 years with Europe the coolest in 6 years. Cooler/wetter trends this time of year are more favorable for Fall seasonal merchandise, so Europe was the winner.



This Week (17-23 Oct) across the U.S. shows generally more of the same with the U.S. trending +1.8F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 9th warmest of the past 36 years. Rainfall down 70% vs a year ago, driest in 8 years and 4th driest of the past 36 years for the U.S. overall. The West continues to be the cooler/wetter spot while the East remains warmer, just cooler than the very hot conditions last week. Much needed rainfall for the Pacific Northwest and down into Northern California...they'll take every drop!



The 6-day snowfall forecast isn't as heavy as last week, but more mountain snow for the higher terrain of the Rocky Mountains.



Next Week (24-30 Oct) shows a huge change vs last year with the U.S. trending a whopping +9.2F warmer than a year ago, warmest in 5 years and 3rd warmest of the past 36 years. This is a very big negative for the end of the retail Q3 (Aug - Oct). Rainfall the least in 5 years but still 13th wettest of the past 36 years. Same generally trend of cooler weather Western third, much warmer Central and East.



The daily U.S. Weather trends this Fall show a wholesale change from last year's coldest Fall in 8 years, this year #1 warmest in over 36 years. Improving trends as we transition into November for cold seasonal merchandise sales with a much improved Q4 vs last year and vs recent Fall trends.



The World Outlook (17-30 October) shows the Western U.S. the lone bright spot for Fall sales with pockets of favorable trends in Europe and Eastern China.

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.