Captain's Log 16 Jan '22 Frigid East - Warm West

Happy Sunday! :)

We'll start today with the biggest snow/ice event of the season for the East Coast impacting millions over the next 24 hours. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Widespread power outages due to heavy ice and snow in the Carolinas is likely. Fortunately the major cities from D.C. to Boston more wet than white so not looking for too many issues, some with higher wind gusts along the coast.



The start of the NFL playoffs got off to an interesting start with the Saturday Buffalo vs New England game time temperature of 7F making it the 4th coldest in Bill's history. The coldest game ever was back on 31 December 1967 at -13F which was dubbed the "Ice Bowl" between Green Bay and Dallas.



Last Week (9-15 Jan) across the World shows the U.S. trending 1.8F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years but still 15th warmest of the past 37 years. But it was a tale of two halves with the Eastern U.S. frigid and the West very mild. Rainfall was similar to last year, up +1% but 9th driest of the past 37 year, below average. Snowfall was up 10% over last year but still 9th least of the past 37 years.

Canada was 13.4F colder than last year for the other colder spot benefiting Winter seasonal merchandise sales. The really cold weekend trends are good for seasonal categories like auto batteries that tend to fail in extremely cold conditions. Most of the rest of the world showed warmer trends with Argentina (their Summer) having record shattering heat.



The 6-day snowfall outlook here in the U.S. shows an uptick in snow with the big storm moving up the East Coast. Snowfall trending +142% more than last year, +42% above average and 7th most of the past 37 years. Good for Winter snow accessory sales. Snow made it all the way into the Deep South with a whopping 12" in Harrison Arkansas, and 7.8" in Shoccoe, Mississippi (Central MS to the NE of Jackson) Saturday before taking aim further East Sunday.



This Week (16-22 Jan) started off extremely cold with below zero temperatures in the Northeast and single digits well into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the big storm. For the U.S. overall, temperatures trend -5.1F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 14th coldest of the past 37 years with below average national temperatures. The cold East vs warm West pattern looks to be locked in for the near term with higher Winter seasonal sales East vs West. Rainfall up +22% over last year, wettest in 3 years and 17th wettest of the past 37 (slightly above average). Snowfall again way up over last year with the East Coast storm.



The Polar Vortex still favoring some glancing shots of cold air for Eastern North America into the Eastern U.S. over the next two weeks. It's still relatively strong and symmetrical but showing signs of weakening again which can lead to major Arctic outbreaks so look out in February and even March for this wintry pattern to continue in the Eastern half of the U.S.



Next week (23-29 Jan) shows the same general theme of cold East, warmer West. For the U.S. overall, temperatures trend 1.9F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 10th coldest of the past 37 years. Another very strong week for cold Winter seasonal merchandise sales. Many areas from Pennsylvania north will likely have a week of temperatures trending below freezing which will very likely freeze most lakes, great for ice fishing sales that struggled last year with a much warmer January in the East. A dry week with national precipitation down 64% vs last year, driest in 9 years and 3rd driest of the past 37 years. Snowfall similar to last year.



The overall 2-week pattern (16-29 Jan) shows the coldest weather conditions vs average in Eastern North America and Western Europe.

We hope you have a great Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend! If only our civil discourse today could be as it was with Reverend King!

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- Captain Kirk out.