Captain's Log 14 May '22 Spring Surge for Seasonal Sales!

Happy Saturday...yup...a little early with the update this week. :)

With the record heat in the Midwest, we'll demonstrate how our year-ahead weather and sales forecasting technology, The Power of 1 Degree, works. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW



Chicago as an example, this past week has brought record heat after three pretty cold weeks the past few years. Last year in Chicago was the coldest in 11 years, this year the hottest in 37+ years and very near a 125 year record with temperatures +22.4F warmer than last year. Next we apply this to our Power of 1 Degree rules of thumbs on how every 1 degree change in temperature year-over-year influences seasonal sales. Categories like Allergy medicines, cold beverages and ice cream move at about 1% increase in sales for every 1F warmer. 22.4F warmer x 1% is a 22% increase in sales for these items. Spring apparel, bird seed, grilling move at about 3% per degree so those sales should have been up +67% vs last year just due to weather. Lawn & Garden, Grass seed, Fertilizers, Pool Chemicals move at 4% per degree so a +90% increase in sales. Volatile categories like bug sprays, sprinklers and lawn equipment move at 5% so a whopping +112% sales increase. The Power of 1 Degree does this out one year, by week, by mile or any retail geography - DC, Warehouse, Store, etc.



Last Week 8-14 May across the World shows the U.S. trending +7.2F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years, 4th warmest in 37 years with much above average national temperatures. Texas to the Northeast was the most improved region, while the West Coast was much colder than last year, less favorable for sales growth. Rainfall was -42% drier than last year, driest in 9 years and 3rd driest of the past 37 years with much below average national rainfall. These are very strong trends for seasonal sales gains, store traffic, outdoor dining, DOT construction work, etc.

Europe also very favorable trending the warmest in 15 years while China the worst trending the coldest in 37 years and wettest in 7 years.



The drier week overall was a plus for farmers still working hard to get the crop in the ground but overall drought is improving a bit. Dry to drought phases in the U.S. peaked at 75% of the country back on 8 March but now we're down to 61% of the country still in drought phases. That's above the average of 44%, but an improving trend.



Unfortunately, we can't say tornadoes are down as they continue to be on the fastest pace in 5 years. 670 so far this year, up +58% over last year, +15% above average and in the top 21% of history. Another big outbreak possible the week before Labor Day in the Heartland.



This week (15-21 May) here in the U.S. shows more favorable weather for Spring merchandise and farmers planting. Temperatures trend +1.7F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years, 3rd warmest in 37 years with much above average temperatures. Particularly favorable from Texas to Maine and points south. Still unfavorable and cool in the Northwest, a drain on sales gains. Rainfall also down -54% vs last year, driest in 20 years and 2nd driest in 37 years nationally with much below average national precipitation. Very positive trends for overall sales.



Next week (22-28 May) before Memorial Day still looks pretty good in the same spots from Texas to the Northeast with national temperatures +1.6F warmer than last year, 14th warmest in 37 years. Rainfall up +34%, most in 5 years and 8th wettest of the past 37 years. The potential exists for a big severe weather outbreak from Texas to Illinois with a clash of cold to the Northwest and warm to the Southeast.



The overall 2-week World outlook (15-28 May) shows warm in the U.S. from the Southwest to the Northeast, cold in Northwest U.S. and Western Canada and Alaska. Europe remain warm while Southwest Russia is cold. Some improvement across China with warmer weather. Cold and wet for Southern Brazil as they enter late Fall.

We hope you have a great weekend and week ahead. Don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out.