Captain's Log 1 Sep '24 Fall Like in the East, Summer West
Captain's Log
1 Sep '24: Happy Sunday and Labor Day weekend! :)
We're excited to launch BrewCast™ - Coffee just in time for Fall. It's a report designed for small businesses to project the weather trends out a year anywhere on Earth, but also a syndicated industry weekly coffee sales forecast out a year. Now available on our plans page. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Meteorological Summer (Jun - Aug) is in the history books and now we gear up for Fall (Sep - Nov) which looks to start off the coolest in 4 years, especially along the East Coast. Fall overall looks to trend the coolest and wettest in 5 years which is a benefit to Back2School and early Fall seasonal categories. While still above average, it's a plus nonetheless.
It's not a plus that we're entering the peak two months of the hurricane season (Sep-Oct) and NOAA is monitoring three areas for potential development.
Deep Caribbean systems heading into the Western Gulf of Mexico is the primary track, but with very warm ocean temperatures near the U.S. anything can develop quickly.
The 14-day storm track forecast shows we might have 2 named systems late this week into next week (Francine, Gordon).
Ocean temperatures vs last year actually show the World's oceans are cooling in many areas with La Nina coming to life in the Equatorial Pacific. These cooling oceans hint at a much colder and potentially snowier Winter ahead for the Northern tier of the U.S., but we expect it to be warmer/drier with developing drought for the Southwest into the Rockies.
Last week (25-31 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. overall trending +1.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 5th warmest of the past 39 years. The West had a much-needed break from the long hot Summer. The season's first snowfall dumped on the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies while U.S. rainfall was up +6% vs last year, 19th wettest of the past 39 years. These were not particularly favorable for seasonal sales, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. Europe and China were both the #1 hottest in over 39 years and dry for much of Europe which is very unfavorable for early Fall categories, but a benefit to consumable categories like cold beverages.
This week (1-7 Sep) across the U.S. shows the big cool down for the Eastern half of the U.S. with the week trending -4.9F cooler than last year, coolest in 7 years and 16th coolest in 39 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days are the least in 15 years and well below average, while rainfall is up +164% vs last year and most in 6 years. Some tropical like moisture along the Gulf Coast could bring some flooding to rain soaked Houston TX. This is overall a very favorable week for Back2School and early Fall merchandise in the East. Not so in the hot Northwest.
Next week (8-14 Sep) shows the heat expanding into the Plains, but the immediate East Coast still trends below average and much cooler than last year. The U.S. overall trends -0.2F cooler than last year but 14th warmest of the past 39 years, but hot 90F days are actually down -51% vs LY and the least in 15 years. Rainfall is down -45% and driest in 13 years. So, East Coast will fare best for early Fall merchandise.
The World 2-week outlook (1-14 Sep) shows the Midwest-East Coast the cool spot, hot Northwest.
The 2-week rainfall outlook shows the heaviest rain from Texas to the Northeast. The very wet tropical waves continue to traverse Africa - one sign that the core hurricane season should get much more active in Sep - Oct.
Have a great Labor Day, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.
We're excited to launch BrewCast™ - Coffee just in time for Fall. It's a report designed for small businesses to project the weather trends out a year anywhere on Earth, but also a syndicated industry weekly coffee sales forecast out a year. Now available on our plans page. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Meteorological Summer (Jun - Aug) is in the history books and now we gear up for Fall (Sep - Nov) which looks to start off the coolest in 4 years, especially along the East Coast. Fall overall looks to trend the coolest and wettest in 5 years which is a benefit to Back2School and early Fall seasonal categories. While still above average, it's a plus nonetheless.
It's not a plus that we're entering the peak two months of the hurricane season (Sep-Oct) and NOAA is monitoring three areas for potential development.
Deep Caribbean systems heading into the Western Gulf of Mexico is the primary track, but with very warm ocean temperatures near the U.S. anything can develop quickly.
The 14-day storm track forecast shows we might have 2 named systems late this week into next week (Francine, Gordon).
Ocean temperatures vs last year actually show the World's oceans are cooling in many areas with La Nina coming to life in the Equatorial Pacific. These cooling oceans hint at a much colder and potentially snowier Winter ahead for the Northern tier of the U.S., but we expect it to be warmer/drier with developing drought for the Southwest into the Rockies.
Last week (25-31 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. overall trending +1.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 5th warmest of the past 39 years. The West had a much-needed break from the long hot Summer. The season's first snowfall dumped on the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies while U.S. rainfall was up +6% vs last year, 19th wettest of the past 39 years. These were not particularly favorable for seasonal sales, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. Europe and China were both the #1 hottest in over 39 years and dry for much of Europe which is very unfavorable for early Fall categories, but a benefit to consumable categories like cold beverages.
This week (1-7 Sep) across the U.S. shows the big cool down for the Eastern half of the U.S. with the week trending -4.9F cooler than last year, coolest in 7 years and 16th coolest in 39 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days are the least in 15 years and well below average, while rainfall is up +164% vs last year and most in 6 years. Some tropical like moisture along the Gulf Coast could bring some flooding to rain soaked Houston TX. This is overall a very favorable week for Back2School and early Fall merchandise in the East. Not so in the hot Northwest.
Next week (8-14 Sep) shows the heat expanding into the Plains, but the immediate East Coast still trends below average and much cooler than last year. The U.S. overall trends -0.2F cooler than last year but 14th warmest of the past 39 years, but hot 90F days are actually down -51% vs LY and the least in 15 years. Rainfall is down -45% and driest in 13 years. So, East Coast will fare best for early Fall merchandise.
The World 2-week outlook (1-14 Sep) shows the Midwest-East Coast the cool spot, hot Northwest.
The 2-week rainfall outlook shows the heaviest rain from Texas to the Northeast. The very wet tropical waves continue to traverse Africa - one sign that the core hurricane season should get much more active in Sep - Oct.
Have a great Labor Day, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out.