Captain's Log 1 May '22 Warm-up on the way!

Happy Sunday! :)

A recap of last week (24-30 April) across the World shows the U.S. trending -3.8F colder than last year, coldest in 14 years and 9th coldest of the past 37 years for the U.S. overall. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW



Rainfall was -14% less than a year ago, driest in 4 years and 11th driest of the past 37 years with below average national rainfall. The really hot spots were in India where it was the hottest in over 37 years with record to near record heat.



The cooler trends to end April was a big negative for Q1 retail sales which are likely to be on the soft side with the less favorable Spring weather for spring seasonal category sales.

April 2022 was volatile for sure with a big heatwave right before Easter, but wasn't enough to keep the month from trending the coldest in 22 years with much below average national temperatures. Rainfall was up +17% vs last year and 17th driest of the past 37 years so near average. Snowfall was the most in 4 years, up +43% over last year and 11th most of the past 37 years so above average with heavier inland Northeast snow totals.



The good news, May likely to be the warmest in 3 years with slightly above average temperatures, so expect a big pent-up sales surge for seasonal merchandise sales to kick-off Q2.



Tornadoes continue with week after week of severe weather. The U.S. count is now 596 tornadoes, the most in 5 years (up +104% over last year and +25% above average) and in the top 10% of historical records. Another very active week this week in the Heartland.



This week (1-7 May) shows signs of a pattern shift toward a warmer pattern. The U.S. overall trends +0.7F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 18th coolest of the past 37 years but still above average nationally. Rainfall +15% more than last year, wettest in 3 years and 7th wettest of the past 37 years. Overall expect a bigger surge in spring merchandise sales in advance of Mother's Day.



Next week (8-14 May) should be a very strong sales week trending +5.1F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 12th warmest of the past 37 years with above average national temperatures. Rainfall down -24% and driest in 9 years, 4th driest in 37 years with much below average national rainfall. Particularly strong conditions from Texas to the Northeast while the West remains soft with very cool conditions.



The 2-week World (1-14 May) outlook shows the improving trends in the Eastern U.S. but continued cool for Eastern Europe.

We hope you have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out.