Captain's Blog 9 Nov '24 Wetter & Snowier Pattern Developing
Captain's Log
9 Nov 2024: Happy Saturday! :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YTeM-YJ42E
Let's talk everything SNOW...4-letter word for some. :) The 2024 Season-to-date World Summary shows Siberia, Alaska and the Western U.S. the snow winners with at least 3x more snow than last year to date. Heavy early snowpack in Siberia is one index that suggests colder Winter outbreaks in Canada and the U.S. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
U.S. Season-to-date snowfall shows the West getting an earlier start to the snow season than last year.
U.S. snow cover this morning is 12.3% of the U.S. vs only 5.8% last year. This is the 8th most snow cover in 21 years +112% vs last year and +37% above average.
The wt360 U.S. snowfall index vs last year (bars) shows an even snowier pattern developing for November with the snowiest week to date coming the 17th-23rd.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (9-14 Nov) continues to show snow continuing for the Western high mountains. Snowfall up +64% vs last year but still 6th least of the past 39 years with only 3% of the U.S. population impacted.
Now back to the changing Fall weather pattern. The Sep - Oct period was the driest in 37 years and near 129-year lows for some locations in the Northeast. That pattern is now shifting to a much wetter/snowier November pattern with the first few weeks trending the wettest in 6 years, 5th most in 39 years with much above average national precipitation.
La Nina is now looking like a weak and short-lived event. It may never even be declared a La Nina even though the ocean temperatures vs last year show clear signs of a La Nina like pattern.
We have just three weeks left in the 2024 hurricane season which will end up as a much above average season and a very destructive one in terms of damage.
Once Major Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Western Cuba and fortunately took a U-Turn in the Gulf and now not likely to impact the U.S. as it weakens. Another weak system near the Bahamas not likely to develop.
The 14-day storm tracks do show a very active stormy pattern traversing the U.S. over the next couple weeks with rain and snow for most of the parched U.S. A sign the pattern is finally transitioning.
Last week (3-9 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.7F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 3rd warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was finally way up +332% vs last year, wettest in 5 years and 4th wettest in 39 years. Unfortunately, this also came with Severe Weather and Tornadoes in the Central U.S. Snowfall was up +483% vs last year and 19th most in 39 years (near average). Eastern Europe, Western U.S. and NE Siberia were the cold spots with most favorable conditions for Fall merchandise.
This time of year, we start to watch the Polar Vortex for signs of weakening and or a wobble that allows Arctic air to head South. We see a little wobble suggesting colder weather for Alaska, West Canada into the Western half of the U.S. Some of this spills into the Eastern U.S. as we get toward late November.
This week (10-16 November) Veteran's Day shows the U.S. trending +1.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 8 years and 4th warmest in 39 years. Rainfall up +17% vs last year but 13th driest in 39 years but some rain for the parched East. Snowfall up +200% vs last year but still 5th least in 39 years with a temporary lull in snow.
Next week (17-23 Nov) prior to Thanksgiving (late this year) shows signs of that Polar Vortex wobble with a big cool down sweeping the U.S. from West to East. The U.S. overall trends -1.7F colder than last year and 15th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall up +12% vs last year, most in 9 years and 8th most in 39 years. Snowfall way up +315% vs last year, most in 24 years and 5th most in 39 years. The snow in the Midwest is way over done, but certainly some will get their first snow of the season. These are good news trends for seasonal merchandise sales likely to see a significant uptick in sales!
The World 2-week outlook (10-23 Nov) shows the more consistent colder weather in Alaska, West Canada, Western U.S., Europe and North Siberia.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (10-23 Nov) shows a big uptick in Northern Hemisphere snowfall and a stormier pattern for the U.S., Canada, Brazil and North-Central Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YTeM-YJ42E
Let's talk everything SNOW...4-letter word for some. :) The 2024 Season-to-date World Summary shows Siberia, Alaska and the Western U.S. the snow winners with at least 3x more snow than last year to date. Heavy early snowpack in Siberia is one index that suggests colder Winter outbreaks in Canada and the U.S. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
U.S. Season-to-date snowfall shows the West getting an earlier start to the snow season than last year.
U.S. snow cover this morning is 12.3% of the U.S. vs only 5.8% last year. This is the 8th most snow cover in 21 years +112% vs last year and +37% above average.
The wt360 U.S. snowfall index vs last year (bars) shows an even snowier pattern developing for November with the snowiest week to date coming the 17th-23rd.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (9-14 Nov) continues to show snow continuing for the Western high mountains. Snowfall up +64% vs last year but still 6th least of the past 39 years with only 3% of the U.S. population impacted.
Now back to the changing Fall weather pattern. The Sep - Oct period was the driest in 37 years and near 129-year lows for some locations in the Northeast. That pattern is now shifting to a much wetter/snowier November pattern with the first few weeks trending the wettest in 6 years, 5th most in 39 years with much above average national precipitation.
La Nina is now looking like a weak and short-lived event. It may never even be declared a La Nina even though the ocean temperatures vs last year show clear signs of a La Nina like pattern.
We have just three weeks left in the 2024 hurricane season which will end up as a much above average season and a very destructive one in terms of damage.
Once Major Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Western Cuba and fortunately took a U-Turn in the Gulf and now not likely to impact the U.S. as it weakens. Another weak system near the Bahamas not likely to develop.
The 14-day storm tracks do show a very active stormy pattern traversing the U.S. over the next couple weeks with rain and snow for most of the parched U.S. A sign the pattern is finally transitioning.
Last week (3-9 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.7F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 3rd warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was finally way up +332% vs last year, wettest in 5 years and 4th wettest in 39 years. Unfortunately, this also came with Severe Weather and Tornadoes in the Central U.S. Snowfall was up +483% vs last year and 19th most in 39 years (near average). Eastern Europe, Western U.S. and NE Siberia were the cold spots with most favorable conditions for Fall merchandise.
This time of year, we start to watch the Polar Vortex for signs of weakening and or a wobble that allows Arctic air to head South. We see a little wobble suggesting colder weather for Alaska, West Canada into the Western half of the U.S. Some of this spills into the Eastern U.S. as we get toward late November.
This week (10-16 November) Veteran's Day shows the U.S. trending +1.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 8 years and 4th warmest in 39 years. Rainfall up +17% vs last year but 13th driest in 39 years but some rain for the parched East. Snowfall up +200% vs last year but still 5th least in 39 years with a temporary lull in snow.
Next week (17-23 Nov) prior to Thanksgiving (late this year) shows signs of that Polar Vortex wobble with a big cool down sweeping the U.S. from West to East. The U.S. overall trends -1.7F colder than last year and 15th warmest of the past 39 years. Rainfall up +12% vs last year, most in 9 years and 8th most in 39 years. Snowfall way up +315% vs last year, most in 24 years and 5th most in 39 years. The snow in the Midwest is way over done, but certainly some will get their first snow of the season. These are good news trends for seasonal merchandise sales likely to see a significant uptick in sales!
The World 2-week outlook (10-23 Nov) shows the more consistent colder weather in Alaska, West Canada, Western U.S., Europe and North Siberia.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (10-23 Nov) shows a big uptick in Northern Hemisphere snowfall and a stormier pattern for the U.S., Canada, Brazil and North-Central Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)