Captain's Blog 30 Nov '24 Coldest start to December in 14 Years (EAST)
Captain's Log
30 Nov '24: Happy Saturday! :)
With the late Thanksgiving, there are only 25 shopping days until Christmas! CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Today is the end of the 2024 hurricane season which was well above average for all metrics, destructive and deadly. The season ranked 4th of the past 174 years for the number of landfalling hurricanes (5) and 3rd for the number of tornadoes associated with landfalling systems. There were 19 systems, 18 named storms, well above average.
U.S. Drought peaked in early November with 88% of the country in dry to drought phases, but that's improved a bit with 74% of the country now dry to drought like. This is a huge change from the exceptionally wet Spring with only 26% of the country in dry to drought phases back on 4 June.
wt360 Power of 1 Degree® technology helps retailers and seasonal suppliers better quantify and predict how the weather will influence sales. As an example, every 1F colder there's a 7% increase in auto battery sales and 10% increase in portable heater sales.
Applying this to the first week of December that trends -6F colder for the U.S. overall will have seasonal category sales surging high double digits: +60% for heaters, +42% for auto batteries and +12% for hot coffee.
In the Northeast, where it will be -10F colder than last year and coldest in 17 years, sales will be even higher. These year-ahead weather and sales outlooks make planning traditional business plans for inventory, marketing, advertising a lot more accurate.
Snow Cover this morning (30 Nov) is +25.4% of the U.S. up from last year when only 16.7% blanketed the country. 23% is typical for this time of year.
U.S. Season-to-date Snowfall shows the heavy early snow in the West and expanding snow in the Northeast.
World snowfall since 1 September shows a much faster start than last year across much of the Northern Hemisphere.
Most have over 300% more snowfall than last year which in part helps for a colder Winter ahead.
Last week (24-30 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +3.5F warmer than last year but 16th coldest of the past 39 years with below average national temperatures. Much colder air moved into the East around Thanksgiving with the holiday weekend, the coldest in 11 years in the Northeast and the #1 coldest in over 39 years nationally. Rainfall was up +8% vs last year but still 7th driest of the past 39 years, while snowfall was -18% less than a year ago and 20th least of the past 39 years (near average). Much warmer across Europe after the recent cold weather.
This week (1-7 Dec) shows a glancing shot of the Polar Vortex bringing really cold weather to the East, coldest in 14 years, with the nation overall trending -6.1F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 16th coldest of the past 39. Snowfall up +95% vs last year, most in 5 years but 16th least of the past 39 years. Rainfall down -51% vs last year, driest in 16 years and 7th driest of the past 39. This is an exceptional week for seasonal merchandise sales for the Eastern half of the country with a huge pent-up demand surge.
The 6-Day Snowfall outlook (1-6 Dec) shows FEET of snow around the Great Lakes. +151% more snow nationally than last year, most in 5 years, 18th most in 39 years impacting 38% of the population.
Next week (8-14 Dec) shows the same general pattern of cold East, warmer West with the U.S. overall trending -5.8F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 18th coldest of the past 39. Snowfall up +176% vs last year and 18th most of the past 39 years with rainfall down -35%, driest in 7 years and 7th driest in 39 years. These are good store traffic trends with cooler/drier weather.
The World 2-week (1-14 Dec) outlook shows Eastern North America the favorable spot for Winter seasonal sales with some cooling across Europe.
World Precipitation shows some drying out across the U.S. while Canada remains very snowy. Brazil continues to get rains for most of their main crop regions, a little dry in the East Central areas. Continued wet and snowy across Central Europe.
Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
With the late Thanksgiving, there are only 25 shopping days until Christmas! CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Today is the end of the 2024 hurricane season which was well above average for all metrics, destructive and deadly. The season ranked 4th of the past 174 years for the number of landfalling hurricanes (5) and 3rd for the number of tornadoes associated with landfalling systems. There were 19 systems, 18 named storms, well above average.
U.S. Drought peaked in early November with 88% of the country in dry to drought phases, but that's improved a bit with 74% of the country now dry to drought like. This is a huge change from the exceptionally wet Spring with only 26% of the country in dry to drought phases back on 4 June.
wt360 Power of 1 Degree® technology helps retailers and seasonal suppliers better quantify and predict how the weather will influence sales. As an example, every 1F colder there's a 7% increase in auto battery sales and 10% increase in portable heater sales.
Applying this to the first week of December that trends -6F colder for the U.S. overall will have seasonal category sales surging high double digits: +60% for heaters, +42% for auto batteries and +12% for hot coffee.
In the Northeast, where it will be -10F colder than last year and coldest in 17 years, sales will be even higher. These year-ahead weather and sales outlooks make planning traditional business plans for inventory, marketing, advertising a lot more accurate.
Snow Cover this morning (30 Nov) is +25.4% of the U.S. up from last year when only 16.7% blanketed the country. 23% is typical for this time of year.
U.S. Season-to-date Snowfall shows the heavy early snow in the West and expanding snow in the Northeast.
World snowfall since 1 September shows a much faster start than last year across much of the Northern Hemisphere.
Most have over 300% more snowfall than last year which in part helps for a colder Winter ahead.
Last week (24-30 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +3.5F warmer than last year but 16th coldest of the past 39 years with below average national temperatures. Much colder air moved into the East around Thanksgiving with the holiday weekend, the coldest in 11 years in the Northeast and the #1 coldest in over 39 years nationally. Rainfall was up +8% vs last year but still 7th driest of the past 39 years, while snowfall was -18% less than a year ago and 20th least of the past 39 years (near average). Much warmer across Europe after the recent cold weather.
This week (1-7 Dec) shows a glancing shot of the Polar Vortex bringing really cold weather to the East, coldest in 14 years, with the nation overall trending -6.1F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 16th coldest of the past 39. Snowfall up +95% vs last year, most in 5 years but 16th least of the past 39 years. Rainfall down -51% vs last year, driest in 16 years and 7th driest of the past 39. This is an exceptional week for seasonal merchandise sales for the Eastern half of the country with a huge pent-up demand surge.
The 6-Day Snowfall outlook (1-6 Dec) shows FEET of snow around the Great Lakes. +151% more snow nationally than last year, most in 5 years, 18th most in 39 years impacting 38% of the population.
Next week (8-14 Dec) shows the same general pattern of cold East, warmer West with the U.S. overall trending -5.8F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 18th coldest of the past 39. Snowfall up +176% vs last year and 18th most of the past 39 years with rainfall down -35%, driest in 7 years and 7th driest in 39 years. These are good store traffic trends with cooler/drier weather.
The World 2-week (1-14 Dec) outlook shows Eastern North America the favorable spot for Winter seasonal sales with some cooling across Europe.
World Precipitation shows some drying out across the U.S. while Canada remains very snowy. Brazil continues to get rains for most of their main crop regions, a little dry in the East Central areas. Continued wet and snowy across Central Europe.
Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out