Captain's Blog 23 Aug '25 Coolest Week Before Labor Day in 38 Years!
Captain's Log
23 Aug '25: Happy Saturday! :)
Despite a few major heat-waves this Summer across the U.S., the major cool down for the latter half of August will have meteorological Summer (1 Jun - 31 Aug) trending -1.2F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years and 15th warmest of the past 40 years for the nation overall. Hot 90F days down -9% vs LY and 8th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall is down -3%, least in 3 years and 17th driest of the past 40 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The Pacific Northwest showed the greatest trend toward hotter/drier weather vs last year while Texas and Oklahoma the greatest change toward "cooler" and wetter weather.
Tropical Cyclone tracks year-to-date show Erin was the 2nd CAT 5 hurricane (16 Aug) across the World in 2025. The other was Errol off Northwest Australia back on 16 April. For the Atlantic basin, all tropical metrics are now at or above average.
Tropical Storm #6 Fernand has developed Southeast of Bermuda, but it will remain weak and a fish storm not impacting land. A weaker wave traversing through the Caribbean bears watching.
We are on day 83 of the 2025 Hurricane Season with 99 to go as we enter the peak middle August to late October season.
Severe weather to date didn't show any big changes from last week with tornadoes down -9% vs LY, hail -2% vs LY, while winds are up +7%.
The severe weather outlook doesn't show any major outbreaks with the Central Plains (Colorado - West Kansas) the highest risk area.
Hot 90F days year-to-date through 22 August shows the U.S. and Northeast trending down -3% and -7% respectively vs last year, but still 5th most in 40 years.
But Summer is ending with a major cool down with Hot 90F days the next 2 weeks down -57% vs last year for the U.S. and least in 29 years, while the Northeast is down 100% and the #1 least hot 90F days in over 40 years!
Last week (17-23 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.3F warmer than last year, 9th warmest in 40 years, while hot 90F days were up +18% vs last year and 6th most of the past 40 years. Rainfall up +31% and most in 3 years, but still 13th driest in 40 years.
Very cold across Australia, while it was record hot in China.
This week (24-30 Aug) before Labor Day shows the major cool down with the U.S. trending -7.5F cooler than last year and coolest in 38 years with much below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days down -67% vs last year and least in 29 years, while rainfall is -22% less than last year, least in 10 years and 4th least in 40 years. The temperature trends are EXCEPTIONAL for Back2School apparel categories. This time of year, cooler/wetter weather drives higher early Fall seasonal sales. The Northwest remains the least favorable, the Central U.S. the most favorable for B2S sales.
Next week (31 Aug - 6 Sep) starts Meteorological Fall with a major cool down in the West and a milder trend in the Central U.S. Overall, the nation trends -2.4F cooler than last year, coolest in 8 years and 11th coolest of the past 40 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days down -46% vs LY, least in 16 years, while rainfall is up +5% vs LY, wettest in 4 years. These are very good trends for B2S sales, but a huge negative for categories like cold beverages, pool suppliers, Summer-clearance items that did well last year.
The World 2-week temperature outlook (24 Aug - 6 Sep) shows very cool conditions across the U.S., Central Europe and Australia. It remains hot for much of Asia.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (24 Aug - 6 Sep) shows drier conditions in the Eastern U.S., very wet in the Central U.S. and Central Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
Despite a few major heat-waves this Summer across the U.S., the major cool down for the latter half of August will have meteorological Summer (1 Jun - 31 Aug) trending -1.2F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years and 15th warmest of the past 40 years for the nation overall. Hot 90F days down -9% vs LY and 8th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall is down -3%, least in 3 years and 17th driest of the past 40 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
The Pacific Northwest showed the greatest trend toward hotter/drier weather vs last year while Texas and Oklahoma the greatest change toward "cooler" and wetter weather.
Tropical Cyclone tracks year-to-date show Erin was the 2nd CAT 5 hurricane (16 Aug) across the World in 2025. The other was Errol off Northwest Australia back on 16 April. For the Atlantic basin, all tropical metrics are now at or above average.
Tropical Storm #6 Fernand has developed Southeast of Bermuda, but it will remain weak and a fish storm not impacting land. A weaker wave traversing through the Caribbean bears watching.
We are on day 83 of the 2025 Hurricane Season with 99 to go as we enter the peak middle August to late October season.
Severe weather to date didn't show any big changes from last week with tornadoes down -9% vs LY, hail -2% vs LY, while winds are up +7%.
The severe weather outlook doesn't show any major outbreaks with the Central Plains (Colorado - West Kansas) the highest risk area.
Hot 90F days year-to-date through 22 August shows the U.S. and Northeast trending down -3% and -7% respectively vs last year, but still 5th most in 40 years.
But Summer is ending with a major cool down with Hot 90F days the next 2 weeks down -57% vs last year for the U.S. and least in 29 years, while the Northeast is down 100% and the #1 least hot 90F days in over 40 years!
Last week (17-23 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.3F warmer than last year, 9th warmest in 40 years, while hot 90F days were up +18% vs last year and 6th most of the past 40 years. Rainfall up +31% and most in 3 years, but still 13th driest in 40 years.
Very cold across Australia, while it was record hot in China.
This week (24-30 Aug) before Labor Day shows the major cool down with the U.S. trending -7.5F cooler than last year and coolest in 38 years with much below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days down -67% vs last year and least in 29 years, while rainfall is -22% less than last year, least in 10 years and 4th least in 40 years. The temperature trends are EXCEPTIONAL for Back2School apparel categories. This time of year, cooler/wetter weather drives higher early Fall seasonal sales. The Northwest remains the least favorable, the Central U.S. the most favorable for B2S sales.
Next week (31 Aug - 6 Sep) starts Meteorological Fall with a major cool down in the West and a milder trend in the Central U.S. Overall, the nation trends -2.4F cooler than last year, coolest in 8 years and 11th coolest of the past 40 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days down -46% vs LY, least in 16 years, while rainfall is up +5% vs LY, wettest in 4 years. These are very good trends for B2S sales, but a huge negative for categories like cold beverages, pool suppliers, Summer-clearance items that did well last year.
The World 2-week temperature outlook (24 Aug - 6 Sep) shows very cool conditions across the U.S., Central Europe and Australia. It remains hot for much of Asia.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (24 Aug - 6 Sep) shows drier conditions in the Eastern U.S., very wet in the Central U.S. and Central Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out