Captain's Blog 22 Feb '25 March Coming in Like a Lion - EAST
Captain's Log
22 Feb '25: Happy Saturday :)
2025 is off to a cold and snowy start with a wholesale change from last year when it was warm and wet. Year-to-date is the coldest in 15 years, driest in 10 years and snowiest in 4 years, negative trends for retail store traffic and sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
This has Great Lakes ice cover surging to 48%, the most in 6 years and 14% above average. Last year was near historic lows with only 8% ice cover. This dramatically increases the chances for a cold March - April in the Northeast downwind of the Great Lakes. Northwest winds in Spring coming off the cold lakes makes it much harder for really warm Spring weather.
Snow Cover this morning is equally impressive with 55% of the country blanketed in snow which is the most in 12 years and 19% above average. Last year near historic lows with only 18% snow cover - the least in 8 years. Too many businesses that plan off last year are running Spring ads which are not effective with weather like this.
Season-to-date snowfall continues to climb steadily with the U.S. up +33% over last year, but still 8th least of the past 40 years and -18% below average nationally. But the big winners are the Southeast with the most snow in 14 years, Northeast and South Central the most in 4 years, while the Southwest is the least in 25 years.
Weekly U.S. snowfall trends show the past two weeks here in February have been the 2nd and 3rd snowiest weeks of Winter. The snowiest week was January 5th-11th for the nation overall. March looks like it could start very snowy and rival for the #3 snowiest week of Winter.
As a result of the more Winter-like pattern here in 2025, severe weather is off to a much slower start. Tornadoes are down -18% vs last year, least in 4 years, Hail down -81% vs last year and least in 3 years, but wind cases picked up some ground with the big storm system in the Great Lakes and Northeast this past week. Wind cases still down -22% vs last year, but +13% above average.
Last week (16-22 Feb) across the World shows the U.S. trending -13F colder than last year and #1 coldest in over 40 years. Rainfall up +51%, most in 3 years and 10th wettest in 40 years, while snowfall was also up +169% vs LY, most in 4 years and 8th most in 40 years. These are very unfavorable trends for store traffic and early Spring seasonal merchandise. It's great for Winter inventory clearance sales for must-have items. But consumers are getting very hard hit with exceptional heating bills trending 25% to 35% higher than last year eating into discretionary spending. This will continue well into late Q1 - Spring. Canada equally unfavorable.
This week (23 Feb -1 Mar) shows a short-lived February Thaw, especially West and Central. The U.S. overall trends -2.6F colder than last year but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Snowfall down -10% vs last year, least in 25 years and 2nd least in 40 years with a reprieve from the snowy first three weeks of February. Rainfall down -42% vs last year, least in 23 years and 5th driest in 40 years. These are slightly favorable trends for a bounce in store traffic, but it will be brief.
Next week (2-8 Mar) looks to come in like a lion with national temperatures trending -8.3F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 13th coldest of the past 40 years with below average national temperatures. Snowfall up +298% over last year, most in 7 years and 7th most in 40 years with a couple systems impacting the Midwest and East Coast. Rainfall down -50% vs last year, least in 4 years and 15th driest of the past 40 years nationally. These are very negative weather trends for early Spring sales from the Central U.S. to the East Coast.
The World 2-week (23 Feb - 8 Mar) temperature outlook shows Western North America more favorable than Eastern North America for early Spring sales.
The World 2-week (23 Feb - 8 Mar) precipitation trends show a stormier pattern for Central Europe and China. Very dry conditions for Australia as the enter their late Summer-early Fall period.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
2025 is off to a cold and snowy start with a wholesale change from last year when it was warm and wet. Year-to-date is the coldest in 15 years, driest in 10 years and snowiest in 4 years, negative trends for retail store traffic and sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
This has Great Lakes ice cover surging to 48%, the most in 6 years and 14% above average. Last year was near historic lows with only 8% ice cover. This dramatically increases the chances for a cold March - April in the Northeast downwind of the Great Lakes. Northwest winds in Spring coming off the cold lakes makes it much harder for really warm Spring weather.
Snow Cover this morning is equally impressive with 55% of the country blanketed in snow which is the most in 12 years and 19% above average. Last year near historic lows with only 18% snow cover - the least in 8 years. Too many businesses that plan off last year are running Spring ads which are not effective with weather like this.
Season-to-date snowfall continues to climb steadily with the U.S. up +33% over last year, but still 8th least of the past 40 years and -18% below average nationally. But the big winners are the Southeast with the most snow in 14 years, Northeast and South Central the most in 4 years, while the Southwest is the least in 25 years.
Weekly U.S. snowfall trends show the past two weeks here in February have been the 2nd and 3rd snowiest weeks of Winter. The snowiest week was January 5th-11th for the nation overall. March looks like it could start very snowy and rival for the #3 snowiest week of Winter.
As a result of the more Winter-like pattern here in 2025, severe weather is off to a much slower start. Tornadoes are down -18% vs last year, least in 4 years, Hail down -81% vs last year and least in 3 years, but wind cases picked up some ground with the big storm system in the Great Lakes and Northeast this past week. Wind cases still down -22% vs last year, but +13% above average.
Last week (16-22 Feb) across the World shows the U.S. trending -13F colder than last year and #1 coldest in over 40 years. Rainfall up +51%, most in 3 years and 10th wettest in 40 years, while snowfall was also up +169% vs LY, most in 4 years and 8th most in 40 years. These are very unfavorable trends for store traffic and early Spring seasonal merchandise. It's great for Winter inventory clearance sales for must-have items. But consumers are getting very hard hit with exceptional heating bills trending 25% to 35% higher than last year eating into discretionary spending. This will continue well into late Q1 - Spring. Canada equally unfavorable.
This week (23 Feb -1 Mar) shows a short-lived February Thaw, especially West and Central. The U.S. overall trends -2.6F colder than last year but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Snowfall down -10% vs last year, least in 25 years and 2nd least in 40 years with a reprieve from the snowy first three weeks of February. Rainfall down -42% vs last year, least in 23 years and 5th driest in 40 years. These are slightly favorable trends for a bounce in store traffic, but it will be brief.
Next week (2-8 Mar) looks to come in like a lion with national temperatures trending -8.3F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 13th coldest of the past 40 years with below average national temperatures. Snowfall up +298% over last year, most in 7 years and 7th most in 40 years with a couple systems impacting the Midwest and East Coast. Rainfall down -50% vs last year, least in 4 years and 15th driest of the past 40 years nationally. These are very negative weather trends for early Spring sales from the Central U.S. to the East Coast.
The World 2-week (23 Feb - 8 Mar) temperature outlook shows Western North America more favorable than Eastern North America for early Spring sales.
The World 2-week (23 Feb - 8 Mar) precipitation trends show a stormier pattern for Central Europe and China. Very dry conditions for Australia as the enter their late Summer-early Fall period.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out