Captain's Blog 20 Sep '25 Mild Pattern & No Tropical Threats
Captain's Log
20 Sep '25 Happy Saturday :)
We'll be speaking Monday afternoon (22 Sep) at 5pm at the Women in Agribusiness Summit in Orlando, Florida. We'll discuss our 2026 Ag crop outlooks across Brazil, the US and World. There is still time to register and attend - registration info. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Then in October we'll join DOMO at their AI + Data tour in New York City on 21 October 12pm-6pm discussing our DOMO-wt360 software solution for seasonal category year-ahead forecasting. Registration is free.
The DOMO-360 app solution makes seasonal category planning across any retailer warp speed with all sorts of cool Agentic AI features to provide you with instant answers on last week, this week, next month, next year. More information on our DOMO solution.
This time last year we were gearing up for Major Hurricane Helene, this year the tropics are quiet for now with Gabrielle the only system out in the Central Atlantic. It's likely to remain a fish storm not impacting land.
We still have 71 days of the hurricane season left and last year we got to system number 7 in middle September, similar to last year. Then things exploded in late Sept-Oct so the tropics still need to be watched as things can develop quickly this time of year.
We had a minor uptick in tornadic activity last week bringing the season totals to 1,484 events, down -8% vs last year but still 25% above average. Hail cases similar to last year and wind cases are up +3% vs last year.
The weekly severe weather outlook shows some minimal threat for severe weather in the Ohio Valley Sunday and back in the Central Plains Monday.
Hot 90F days year-to-date are trending down -7% vs last year and 7th most of the past 40 years. Just starting to track the sub 32F days and those are up +83% vs last year and most in 4 years for the 1 August - 20 September period. This will accelerate as we get into October.
Last week (14-20 Sep) across the World shows the U.S. trending -1.2F cooler than last year but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days were up +5% over LY, most in 7 years and 2nd most in 40 years for the U.S. overall. Rainfall was down -5%, driest in 3 years and 4th driest in 40 years. This time of year, colder/wetter weather is better for seasonal merchandise sales, but the dry weather certainly benefits outdoor categories like lawn and garden, exterior paint, construction categories, allergy and irrigation. It was very wet across the U.K.
Fall officially arrives on Monday 22 September at 2:19pm EDT.
The western high mountains and New England are starting to see the leaves change color; this will accelerate over the next 30 days. The extremely dry pattern since 6 July has the U.S. trending the driest in 25 years. This will have leaves peaking earlier than last year in many areas.
This week (21-27 Sep) shows national temperatures trending -0.2F cooler than last year, but still 2nd warmest in 40 years. Hot 90F days are down -34%, least in 4 years but 13th most in 40 years, while rainfall is down -37% vs last year but still 16th wettest of the past 40 years. Some much needed rainfall from Missouri to the Northeast will help with the extremely dry conditions. This was the week that Hurricane Helene made landfall bringing severe flooding in North Carolina. The lack of hurricane landfalls here in Q3 will have a negative impact on Home Center sales and storm merchandise.
Next week (28 Sep - 4 Oct) national temperatures trend -0.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years but still 3rd warmest in 40 years. The East and West Coasts are the primary regions trending cooler and likely to have some minimal lift in Fall seasonal merchandise sales. Hot 90F days way down -71%, least in 3 years and 21st coolest of the past 40 years, while rainfall is up +59%, wettest in 3 years but 9th driest of the past 40 years.
The World 2-week temperature outlook (21 Sep - 4 Oct) shows a generally unfavorably warm pattern for North America, with much more favorable conditions for Fall merchandise in Europe.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (21 Sep - 4 Oct) shows some drought relief rains in the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic with much drier conditions across the Southeast where it was very wet last year.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
We'll be speaking Monday afternoon (22 Sep) at 5pm at the Women in Agribusiness Summit in Orlando, Florida. We'll discuss our 2026 Ag crop outlooks across Brazil, the US and World. There is still time to register and attend - registration info. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Then in October we'll join DOMO at their AI + Data tour in New York City on 21 October 12pm-6pm discussing our DOMO-wt360 software solution for seasonal category year-ahead forecasting. Registration is free.
The DOMO-360 app solution makes seasonal category planning across any retailer warp speed with all sorts of cool Agentic AI features to provide you with instant answers on last week, this week, next month, next year. More information on our DOMO solution.
This time last year we were gearing up for Major Hurricane Helene, this year the tropics are quiet for now with Gabrielle the only system out in the Central Atlantic. It's likely to remain a fish storm not impacting land.
We still have 71 days of the hurricane season left and last year we got to system number 7 in middle September, similar to last year. Then things exploded in late Sept-Oct so the tropics still need to be watched as things can develop quickly this time of year.
We had a minor uptick in tornadic activity last week bringing the season totals to 1,484 events, down -8% vs last year but still 25% above average. Hail cases similar to last year and wind cases are up +3% vs last year.
The weekly severe weather outlook shows some minimal threat for severe weather in the Ohio Valley Sunday and back in the Central Plains Monday.
Hot 90F days year-to-date are trending down -7% vs last year and 7th most of the past 40 years. Just starting to track the sub 32F days and those are up +83% vs last year and most in 4 years for the 1 August - 20 September period. This will accelerate as we get into October.
Last week (14-20 Sep) across the World shows the U.S. trending -1.2F cooler than last year but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days were up +5% over LY, most in 7 years and 2nd most in 40 years for the U.S. overall. Rainfall was down -5%, driest in 3 years and 4th driest in 40 years. This time of year, colder/wetter weather is better for seasonal merchandise sales, but the dry weather certainly benefits outdoor categories like lawn and garden, exterior paint, construction categories, allergy and irrigation. It was very wet across the U.K.
Fall officially arrives on Monday 22 September at 2:19pm EDT.
The western high mountains and New England are starting to see the leaves change color; this will accelerate over the next 30 days. The extremely dry pattern since 6 July has the U.S. trending the driest in 25 years. This will have leaves peaking earlier than last year in many areas.
This week (21-27 Sep) shows national temperatures trending -0.2F cooler than last year, but still 2nd warmest in 40 years. Hot 90F days are down -34%, least in 4 years but 13th most in 40 years, while rainfall is down -37% vs last year but still 16th wettest of the past 40 years. Some much needed rainfall from Missouri to the Northeast will help with the extremely dry conditions. This was the week that Hurricane Helene made landfall bringing severe flooding in North Carolina. The lack of hurricane landfalls here in Q3 will have a negative impact on Home Center sales and storm merchandise.
Next week (28 Sep - 4 Oct) national temperatures trend -0.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years but still 3rd warmest in 40 years. The East and West Coasts are the primary regions trending cooler and likely to have some minimal lift in Fall seasonal merchandise sales. Hot 90F days way down -71%, least in 3 years and 21st coolest of the past 40 years, while rainfall is up +59%, wettest in 3 years but 9th driest of the past 40 years.
The World 2-week temperature outlook (21 Sep - 4 Oct) shows a generally unfavorably warm pattern for North America, with much more favorable conditions for Fall merchandise in Europe.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (21 Sep - 4 Oct) shows some drought relief rains in the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic with much drier conditions across the Southeast where it was very wet last year.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out