Captain's Blog 2 Aug '25 Cooler/Drier then Warmer/Wetter
Captain's Log
2 Aug 2025: Happy Saturday! :)
It's the start of our 10-day Musikfest here in Bethlehem PA. Over 1.25 million folks will invade town for the event. And the weather looks fantastic with below average temperatures and the driest conditions in 3 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Hot 90F days year-to-date are down -5% vs last year nationally and down -11% in the Northeast. Still 6th and 7th most of the past 40 years.
The 2-week outlook for hot 90F days shows the U.S. trending down -12% vs last year and the Northeast down -31% vs last year. Still warm but a drag on Summer clearance sales for hot seasonal categories.
Severe Weather continues to show tornadoes down -8% vs last year, hail -2% vs a year ago while wind cases have been the most in 14 years.
The 3-day severe weather outlook shows some risk in the Central Plains but nothing widespread.
Wildfires likely to become the next headline news event as the begin to erupt in the Western U.S. and in Central Canada. Some of the Canadian wildfire smoke will invade the Northeast U.S. on Northwest winds turning our blue skies a milky white.
A weak tropical system could develop off the North Carolina coast early this week and head out to sea. We are entering the peak hurricane season from August to October.
Last week (27 Jul - 2 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. trending -2.8F cooler than last year, coolest in 7 years and 19th coolest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days were down -16% vs last year, least in 3 years but 13th most in 40 years. Rainfall was down -13% vs LY but still 14th wettest of the past 40 years. This time of year, cooler and wetter weather is better for back2school seasonal sales. The hot spots were across Russia and China, while Europe was the coolest in 10 years and 3rd wettest in 40 years.
This week (3-9 Aug) show the U.S. again trending -0.8F cooler than last year and 17th warmest of the past 40 years. Quite cool by August standards in the Southeast with heavy rain. Hot 90F days nationally are down -34% vs last year, least in 8 years and 15th least in 40 years (Below Avg). Rainfall down -45% vs last year when Hurricane Debby drenched the Middle Atlantic, driest in 15 years and 10th driest in 40 years. Cool and Wet in the Southeast does help back2school sales with kids already going back to school.
Next week (10-16 Aug) starts a warming trend with the U.S. trending +2.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 7th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days also up +35% vs last year, most in 4 years and 7th most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +42% and 20th wettest of the past 40 years. A dramatic warming trend in the Northeast.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (3-16 Aug) shows the Southeast the relatively cooler and wetter spot with building heat in the Rockies, Northeast and across Canada.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (3-16 Aug) shows above average rainfall across the Southeast US, but generally dry for much of the U.S. and Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
It's the start of our 10-day Musikfest here in Bethlehem PA. Over 1.25 million folks will invade town for the event. And the weather looks fantastic with below average temperatures and the driest conditions in 3 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Hot 90F days year-to-date are down -5% vs last year nationally and down -11% in the Northeast. Still 6th and 7th most of the past 40 years.
The 2-week outlook for hot 90F days shows the U.S. trending down -12% vs last year and the Northeast down -31% vs last year. Still warm but a drag on Summer clearance sales for hot seasonal categories.
Severe Weather continues to show tornadoes down -8% vs last year, hail -2% vs a year ago while wind cases have been the most in 14 years.
The 3-day severe weather outlook shows some risk in the Central Plains but nothing widespread.
Wildfires likely to become the next headline news event as the begin to erupt in the Western U.S. and in Central Canada. Some of the Canadian wildfire smoke will invade the Northeast U.S. on Northwest winds turning our blue skies a milky white.
A weak tropical system could develop off the North Carolina coast early this week and head out to sea. We are entering the peak hurricane season from August to October.
Last week (27 Jul - 2 Aug) across the World shows the U.S. trending -2.8F cooler than last year, coolest in 7 years and 19th coolest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days were down -16% vs last year, least in 3 years but 13th most in 40 years. Rainfall was down -13% vs LY but still 14th wettest of the past 40 years. This time of year, cooler and wetter weather is better for back2school seasonal sales. The hot spots were across Russia and China, while Europe was the coolest in 10 years and 3rd wettest in 40 years.
This week (3-9 Aug) show the U.S. again trending -0.8F cooler than last year and 17th warmest of the past 40 years. Quite cool by August standards in the Southeast with heavy rain. Hot 90F days nationally are down -34% vs last year, least in 8 years and 15th least in 40 years (Below Avg). Rainfall down -45% vs last year when Hurricane Debby drenched the Middle Atlantic, driest in 15 years and 10th driest in 40 years. Cool and Wet in the Southeast does help back2school sales with kids already going back to school.
Next week (10-16 Aug) starts a warming trend with the U.S. trending +2.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 7th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days also up +35% vs last year, most in 4 years and 7th most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +42% and 20th wettest of the past 40 years. A dramatic warming trend in the Northeast.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (3-16 Aug) shows the Southeast the relatively cooler and wetter spot with building heat in the Rockies, Northeast and across Canada.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (3-16 Aug) shows above average rainfall across the Southeast US, but generally dry for much of the U.S. and Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out