Captain's Blog 19 Apr '25 Warming Trend for Stronger End to Q1
Captain's Log
19 Apr '25: Happy Easter...Happy Passover. :)
A recap of Q1 (Feb - Apr) to date shows a challenging quarter but hope for a strong finish. The quarter overall to date is trending -2.3F cooler vs last year but still 7th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall is -10% less than last year but 18th wettest of the past 40 years, while snowfall has been +43% more than last year but 7th least of the past 40 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
The day-by-day trends show the tough start with the cold and stormy February, but then a big surge middle March followed by a much cooler start to April. Now a big surge of generally favorable weather to round out the quarter. Overall, retail seasonal sales are still likely to trend on the soft side. Warmer/Drier YOY periods historically bring stronger sales gains and store traffic trends.
Severe Weather wasn't as extreme this past week with 20 tornado cases, 131 wind events and 169 hail events. Wind cases year-t0-date trending the most in 14 years, hail cases the most in 8 years and tornadoes up over last year.
The 3-day outlook shows severe weather threats along a slow-moving cold front from Texas to New York.
Last week (13-19 Apr) across the World shows the U.S. trending -3.1F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years but 11th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall was down -21% vs last year, driest in 17 years and 3rd driest of the past 40 years. The good news is a warming trend surged Saturday helping to boost last minute Easter sales. It was exceptionally wet in Europe trending the wettest in 26 years.
This week (20-26 Apr) we have half of the equation with warmer weather, but very wet (negative). The U.S. overall trends +5.#F warmer than last year, warmest in 35 years and 4th warmest in 40 years. The heat moves East while the West Coast cools off. Hot 90F days across the U.S. look to be up +18% vs last year, most in 3 years and 9th most in 40 years benefiting early Summer seasonal items like pool supplies, fans, cold beverages. Rainfall is the dampening factor trending up +109% over last year, wettest in 8 years and 5th wettest of the past 40 years. Severe weather likely to surge in the Central U.S.
Next week (27 Apr - 3 May) is most likely the 3rd best week of the quarter with national temperatures trending +0.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 4th warmest of the past 40 years. Despite the warmer trends, really hot 90F days are down -38% vs last year, least in 6 years and 19th least of the past 40 years. Rainfall -26% vs last year, least in 7 years and 16th driest of the past 40 years. These are favorable conditions for Spring seasonal sales.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (20 Apr - 3 May) shows the improving trends across the U.S. and even Canada. Western Europe also favorable for Spring seasonal merchandise.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (20 Apr - 3 May) shows wet conditions across much of Canada, the Western U.S., South Central U.S. and Southeast while the Northeast looks to be dry and favorable for outdoor activities.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
A recap of Q1 (Feb - Apr) to date shows a challenging quarter but hope for a strong finish. The quarter overall to date is trending -2.3F cooler vs last year but still 7th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall is -10% less than last year but 18th wettest of the past 40 years, while snowfall has been +43% more than last year but 7th least of the past 40 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
The day-by-day trends show the tough start with the cold and stormy February, but then a big surge middle March followed by a much cooler start to April. Now a big surge of generally favorable weather to round out the quarter. Overall, retail seasonal sales are still likely to trend on the soft side. Warmer/Drier YOY periods historically bring stronger sales gains and store traffic trends.
Severe Weather wasn't as extreme this past week with 20 tornado cases, 131 wind events and 169 hail events. Wind cases year-t0-date trending the most in 14 years, hail cases the most in 8 years and tornadoes up over last year.
The 3-day outlook shows severe weather threats along a slow-moving cold front from Texas to New York.
Last week (13-19 Apr) across the World shows the U.S. trending -3.1F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years but 11th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall was down -21% vs last year, driest in 17 years and 3rd driest of the past 40 years. The good news is a warming trend surged Saturday helping to boost last minute Easter sales. It was exceptionally wet in Europe trending the wettest in 26 years.
This week (20-26 Apr) we have half of the equation with warmer weather, but very wet (negative). The U.S. overall trends +5.#F warmer than last year, warmest in 35 years and 4th warmest in 40 years. The heat moves East while the West Coast cools off. Hot 90F days across the U.S. look to be up +18% vs last year, most in 3 years and 9th most in 40 years benefiting early Summer seasonal items like pool supplies, fans, cold beverages. Rainfall is the dampening factor trending up +109% over last year, wettest in 8 years and 5th wettest of the past 40 years. Severe weather likely to surge in the Central U.S.
Next week (27 Apr - 3 May) is most likely the 3rd best week of the quarter with national temperatures trending +0.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 4th warmest of the past 40 years. Despite the warmer trends, really hot 90F days are down -38% vs last year, least in 6 years and 19th least of the past 40 years. Rainfall -26% vs last year, least in 7 years and 16th driest of the past 40 years. These are favorable conditions for Spring seasonal sales.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (20 Apr - 3 May) shows the improving trends across the U.S. and even Canada. Western Europe also favorable for Spring seasonal merchandise.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (20 Apr - 3 May) shows wet conditions across much of Canada, the Western U.S., South Central U.S. and Southeast while the Northeast looks to be dry and favorable for outdoor activities.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out