Captain's Blog 18 Oct '25 Cooler/Wetter end to Q3 (Favorable)
Captain's Log
18 Oct '25: Happy Saturday! :)
We'll be at the DOMO AI Connections Tour in New York City Tuesday, hope to see you there at this free event. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Our DOMO Power of 1 Degree software app solution (learn more here) helps retailers and seasonal suppliers better plan for the year-ahead with seasonal sales forecasts by week, by store/DC out a year. The interactive platform helps you make better informed decisions on inventory, where to allocate, when to promote/advertise and more.
Our Power of 1 Degree technology demonstrates how small changes in the weather are having a BIG influence on your sales. Every 1F cooler in the Fall can bring a 5% bounce in women apparel sales, 10F cooler 55%, but 10F warmer a bigger -55% decline.
Columbus Day weekend is a good example of how the coolest conditions in 13 years for the New York City area, -7F cooler than last year brought a big bounce in seasonal sales. Fall apparel +35% YOY, Coffee +14% but many other categories that benefit from warmer/drier weather were down like sun care -49%. Sacramento, California was even cooler with strong Fall demand. Far northern New England was actually warmer and drier and that resulted in lower demand for Fall merchandise. With the big East Coast Nor'easter, there was significant coastal flooding, beach erosion benefiting some storm related categories.
A look at Q3 (Aug - Oct) shows a strong start around Labor Day with national temperatures -6F cooler than LY and the coolest in 33 years. Then less favorable for the front half of October, but now a stronger finish with cooler/wetter conditions to round out the quarter. Overall Q3 looks to trend the coolest in 5 years, 9th warmest in 40 years, -4% drier and the #1 driest in over 40 years. We also had 4 landfalling hurricanes last year vs none so far this year; this is a bigger negative for home centers and storm merchandise.
We are on day 139 of the hurricane season with 43 days to go. With 12 names storms it's an average season with the number of major hurricanes a bit above average. Bermuda has taken the brunt of the season so far with big waves the biggest impact to the East Coast from a few systems closer to the East Coast (Erin).
The 13th named storm is likely to form this week but still a lot of uncertainty in the path. Earlier models had this coming up the East Coast, latest models show a flooding event for the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Some models show 40" of rain in the DR - that would be catastrophic, so a system worth watching this week.
A look at the storm tracks for 2025 vs 2024 shows the expected shift out of the Gulf of Mexico and more off the East Coast. wt360 has historical hurricane tracks and landfall data mapped to zip codes and stores going back 185 years.
Severe weather to date shows tornadoes down -13% vs last year, hail +1% and wind cases +2% vs a year ago. So far, it's been a very quiet Fall for severe weather with the exceptionally dry pattern. That's changing a bit now.
The week ahead severe weather outlook shows a little more activity shifting from the South-Central U.S. into the Middle Atlantic this weekend.
It's about that time of year to start talking snow and the Northwest is the winner so far with 200% to 300% more snow than last year in the highest elevations. While below average nationally, this is the fastest start in 3 years. A theme for the Winter ahead!
The U.S. cold/snow indexes show sub-freezing days this season ar down -27% vs last year and 2nd least in 40 years. Snowfall index is the most in 3 years - this is based on major population centers and not the recent heavy mountain snow in the Northwest.
Last week (12-18 Oct) across the World shows the U.S. trending +3.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 9 years and 3rd warmest in 40 years. Fortunately the Columbus Day weekend was the most favorable part of the week. Sub 32F days were down -56% vs LY, least in 20 years and 2nd least in 40 years, while rainfall was up +88% vs LY but still 10th driest in 40 years. Central Europe was the coolest in 4 years, Russia coolest in 9 years, while Australia (Spring) was the warmest in 7 years. China and Brazil were the wet spots.
This week (19-25 Oct) shows more favorable weather trends with less extreme warmth. The U.S. overall trends -2.7F cooler than LY, coolest in 3 years and 14th warmest of the past 40 years. The Eastern half of the country is much cooler than a year ago with higher Fall merchandise demand, the West will moderate with softening demand. Rainfall is +279% over last year, most in 14 years with much needed rain in the Northeast.
The 6-day snowfall outlook shows some lingering high elevation snow in the West, but nothing like this past week.
Next week (26 Oct - 1 Nov) is the last week of Q3 and it's a bit better with temperatures trending -2.2F cooler than last year but still 4th warmest of the past 40 years. The South Central to Northeast is still much cooler than a year ago. More beneficial rainfall in the Northeast, but this can hurt candy sales and outdoor decoration categories. National rainfall up +26% vs last year with snow limited to the very high mountains out West.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (19 Oct - 1 Nov) shows above average temperatures across North America, but still cooler than last year in the Eastern U.S. China is the really cold spot with Europe and the U.K. favorably cool for Fall merchandise sales.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (19 Oct - 1 Nov) shows a wetter pattern developing in the U.S. and Europe. This can slow store traffic but does spur demand for Fall merchandise.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran)
We'll be at the DOMO AI Connections Tour in New York City Tuesday, hope to see you there at this free event. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Our DOMO Power of 1 Degree software app solution (learn more here) helps retailers and seasonal suppliers better plan for the year-ahead with seasonal sales forecasts by week, by store/DC out a year. The interactive platform helps you make better informed decisions on inventory, where to allocate, when to promote/advertise and more.
Our Power of 1 Degree technology demonstrates how small changes in the weather are having a BIG influence on your sales. Every 1F cooler in the Fall can bring a 5% bounce in women apparel sales, 10F cooler 55%, but 10F warmer a bigger -55% decline.
Columbus Day weekend is a good example of how the coolest conditions in 13 years for the New York City area, -7F cooler than last year brought a big bounce in seasonal sales. Fall apparel +35% YOY, Coffee +14% but many other categories that benefit from warmer/drier weather were down like sun care -49%. Sacramento, California was even cooler with strong Fall demand. Far northern New England was actually warmer and drier and that resulted in lower demand for Fall merchandise. With the big East Coast Nor'easter, there was significant coastal flooding, beach erosion benefiting some storm related categories.
A look at Q3 (Aug - Oct) shows a strong start around Labor Day with national temperatures -6F cooler than LY and the coolest in 33 years. Then less favorable for the front half of October, but now a stronger finish with cooler/wetter conditions to round out the quarter. Overall Q3 looks to trend the coolest in 5 years, 9th warmest in 40 years, -4% drier and the #1 driest in over 40 years. We also had 4 landfalling hurricanes last year vs none so far this year; this is a bigger negative for home centers and storm merchandise.
We are on day 139 of the hurricane season with 43 days to go. With 12 names storms it's an average season with the number of major hurricanes a bit above average. Bermuda has taken the brunt of the season so far with big waves the biggest impact to the East Coast from a few systems closer to the East Coast (Erin).
The 13th named storm is likely to form this week but still a lot of uncertainty in the path. Earlier models had this coming up the East Coast, latest models show a flooding event for the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Some models show 40" of rain in the DR - that would be catastrophic, so a system worth watching this week.
A look at the storm tracks for 2025 vs 2024 shows the expected shift out of the Gulf of Mexico and more off the East Coast. wt360 has historical hurricane tracks and landfall data mapped to zip codes and stores going back 185 years.
Severe weather to date shows tornadoes down -13% vs last year, hail +1% and wind cases +2% vs a year ago. So far, it's been a very quiet Fall for severe weather with the exceptionally dry pattern. That's changing a bit now.
The week ahead severe weather outlook shows a little more activity shifting from the South-Central U.S. into the Middle Atlantic this weekend.
It's about that time of year to start talking snow and the Northwest is the winner so far with 200% to 300% more snow than last year in the highest elevations. While below average nationally, this is the fastest start in 3 years. A theme for the Winter ahead!
The U.S. cold/snow indexes show sub-freezing days this season ar down -27% vs last year and 2nd least in 40 years. Snowfall index is the most in 3 years - this is based on major population centers and not the recent heavy mountain snow in the Northwest.
Last week (12-18 Oct) across the World shows the U.S. trending +3.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 9 years and 3rd warmest in 40 years. Fortunately the Columbus Day weekend was the most favorable part of the week. Sub 32F days were down -56% vs LY, least in 20 years and 2nd least in 40 years, while rainfall was up +88% vs LY but still 10th driest in 40 years. Central Europe was the coolest in 4 years, Russia coolest in 9 years, while Australia (Spring) was the warmest in 7 years. China and Brazil were the wet spots.
This week (19-25 Oct) shows more favorable weather trends with less extreme warmth. The U.S. overall trends -2.7F cooler than LY, coolest in 3 years and 14th warmest of the past 40 years. The Eastern half of the country is much cooler than a year ago with higher Fall merchandise demand, the West will moderate with softening demand. Rainfall is +279% over last year, most in 14 years with much needed rain in the Northeast.
The 6-day snowfall outlook shows some lingering high elevation snow in the West, but nothing like this past week.
Next week (26 Oct - 1 Nov) is the last week of Q3 and it's a bit better with temperatures trending -2.2F cooler than last year but still 4th warmest of the past 40 years. The South Central to Northeast is still much cooler than a year ago. More beneficial rainfall in the Northeast, but this can hurt candy sales and outdoor decoration categories. National rainfall up +26% vs last year with snow limited to the very high mountains out West.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (19 Oct - 1 Nov) shows above average temperatures across North America, but still cooler than last year in the Eastern U.S. China is the really cold spot with Europe and the U.K. favorably cool for Fall merchandise sales.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (19 Oct - 1 Nov) shows a wetter pattern developing in the U.S. and Europe. This can slow store traffic but does spur demand for Fall merchandise.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran)