Captain's Blog 17 May '25 Coldest Week Prior Memorial Day in 10 Years
Captain's Log
17 May '25: Happy Saturday! :)
We have a 20-minute speaking session at the DOMO AI Innovation Summit on Wednesday 21 May from 12pm-3pm EDT. Thousands have already registered for the free virtual event; we're up in the 1pm-2pm EDT time slot as are speakers from Google, AWS, GWC Data.AI Link here to register. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Severe weather impacted the St. Louis metro area west of town with a destructive tornado yesterday. Season-to-date shows tornadoes are down -5% vs last year, but still 31% above average. Hail cases were 4% above last year and wind cases still the most in 14 years.
More severe this weekend into early next week shifting from the South into the Central U.S.
Drought is expanding in the Southwest, Rockies and into parts of the Plains. 55% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases which is down from the historic peak of 88% back on 5 November 2024. The drought in PA is OVER after 2-weeks of non-stop rain that has the Northeast trending the wettest in 36 years here in May.
Spring (Mar - May) year-over-year U.S. weather trends show a couple big surges for spring seasonal sales in middle-late March, late April but now a big cool down going into Memorial Day weekend. The last 3 weeks have been wetter than last year's very wet conditions, a negative for seasonal sales and store traffic.
Last week (11-17 May) across the World shows the U.S. the continued volatile up and down weather pattern with the country trending +2F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 4th warmest of the past 40 years. A big cool down in the West. Hot 90F days were also up +66% vs last year, most in 3 years and 3rd most in 40 years. Most of the hot trends were in Texas. Rainfall was +8% wetter than LY, most in 10 years and 7th most in 40 years. Europe was the coolest in 5 years while China was the hottest in 7 years.
This week (18-24 May) before Memorial Day is -6.2F cooler than last year, coolest in 10 years and 6th coolest of the past 40 years with well below average temperatures in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Hot 90F days are down -21% vs last year but continued hot in Texas. Rainfall up +12% vs last year, the wettest in 3 years and 15th wettest in 40 years. These are generally very unfavorable trends for hot seasonal categories.
Next week (25-31 May) shows lingering cooler weather in the East but moderating and expanding warmth in the West back into the Central U.S. The U.S. overall trends +0.8F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 12th warmest of the past 40 years. The Northeast is still trending the coolest in 4 years with below average temperatures. Hot 90F days down -36% vs last year, 19th most of the past 40 years (near average). Rainfall finally down -31% vs last year and 4th driest of the past 40 years. This is a positive for an uptick in store traffic.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (18-31 May) shows cooler Eastern U.S., warmer West. Eastern Europe is cooler while Western Europe is warmer. Remains hot in China, Brazil and the Middle East.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (18-31 May) shows heavier rain in the Central U.S. which is much needed in some drought parched farming regions. Starting to dry out in the Eastern U.S. Crop regions in Brazil remain dry which will help with harvesting.
Have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
We have a 20-minute speaking session at the DOMO AI Innovation Summit on Wednesday 21 May from 12pm-3pm EDT. Thousands have already registered for the free virtual event; we're up in the 1pm-2pm EDT time slot as are speakers from Google, AWS, GWC Data.AI Link here to register. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Severe weather impacted the St. Louis metro area west of town with a destructive tornado yesterday. Season-to-date shows tornadoes are down -5% vs last year, but still 31% above average. Hail cases were 4% above last year and wind cases still the most in 14 years.
More severe this weekend into early next week shifting from the South into the Central U.S.
Drought is expanding in the Southwest, Rockies and into parts of the Plains. 55% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases which is down from the historic peak of 88% back on 5 November 2024. The drought in PA is OVER after 2-weeks of non-stop rain that has the Northeast trending the wettest in 36 years here in May.
Spring (Mar - May) year-over-year U.S. weather trends show a couple big surges for spring seasonal sales in middle-late March, late April but now a big cool down going into Memorial Day weekend. The last 3 weeks have been wetter than last year's very wet conditions, a negative for seasonal sales and store traffic.
Last week (11-17 May) across the World shows the U.S. the continued volatile up and down weather pattern with the country trending +2F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 4th warmest of the past 40 years. A big cool down in the West. Hot 90F days were also up +66% vs last year, most in 3 years and 3rd most in 40 years. Most of the hot trends were in Texas. Rainfall was +8% wetter than LY, most in 10 years and 7th most in 40 years. Europe was the coolest in 5 years while China was the hottest in 7 years.
This week (18-24 May) before Memorial Day is -6.2F cooler than last year, coolest in 10 years and 6th coolest of the past 40 years with well below average temperatures in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Hot 90F days are down -21% vs last year but continued hot in Texas. Rainfall up +12% vs last year, the wettest in 3 years and 15th wettest in 40 years. These are generally very unfavorable trends for hot seasonal categories.
Next week (25-31 May) shows lingering cooler weather in the East but moderating and expanding warmth in the West back into the Central U.S. The U.S. overall trends +0.8F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 12th warmest of the past 40 years. The Northeast is still trending the coolest in 4 years with below average temperatures. Hot 90F days down -36% vs last year, 19th most of the past 40 years (near average). Rainfall finally down -31% vs last year and 4th driest of the past 40 years. This is a positive for an uptick in store traffic.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (18-31 May) shows cooler Eastern U.S., warmer West. Eastern Europe is cooler while Western Europe is warmer. Remains hot in China, Brazil and the Middle East.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (18-31 May) shows heavier rain in the Central U.S. which is much needed in some drought parched farming regions. Starting to dry out in the Eastern U.S. Crop regions in Brazil remain dry which will help with harvesting.
Have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out