Captain's Blog 15 Mar '25 Warmer, Snowier with Severe Weather
Captain's Log
15 March 2025: Happy Saturday :)
Team360 is headed to the DOMO'Palooza annual conference in Utah this week to showcase the new DOMO-wt360 year-ahead retail/supplier weather and sales forecasting software solution. To say it's awesome is an understatement (see video at the end of today's blog for more information). CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
wt360's Power of 1 Degree year-ahead forecasting technology combined with DOMO's AI/data solutions will be discussed during the opening session at 9:30am on Wednesday 19 March with DOMO CEO Josh James.
It was a slow start to the severe weather season, but we picked up steam with the first major outbreak which now has tornadoes up +2% vs last year (still -24% below avg), wind cases the most impactful up +43% vs last year and +46% above average, while hail cases are still -53% vs last year and -23% below average.
The 3-day outlook from NOAA Storm Prediction Center shows the severe weather risk shifting out of the Midwest into the Southeast Saturday and Eat Coast Sunday.
A couple more big storm systems over the next couple weeks will keep the severe weather threat on the high side.
Season-to-date U.S. snowfall is picking up some ground with heavier snow finally impacting the Western high mountains. The Southwest still has the biggest snowfall deficits, trending -48% vs last year and the least in 22 years. The Northwest is also down -33% vs last year and least in 10 years. The Southeast was the biggest winner with the most snow in 10 years, Northeast most in 4 years. The U.S. overall is trending +32% more snow than last year but still 5th least in the past 40 years.
The top 5 snowiest weeks were #1 5-11 Jan, #2 9-15 Feb, #3 16-22 Feb, #4 2-8 Feb and #5 19-25 Jan. Another snowy week ahead for middle March.
The good news is FLU continues to make its annual plunge in cases after a severe but very late spike around Valentines' Day. This year's spike in cases was 6 weeks later than last year's Christmas spike and 12 weeks later than the very early 2023 season that peaked at Thanksgiving.
Last week (9-15 Mar) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 9 years and 4th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall was down -25% vs last year, least in 4 years and 17th least in 40 years, while snowfall was down -38% vs last year, least in 9 years and 6th least in 40 years. These were generally favorable trends for store traffic and early Spring merchandise sales.
The Polar Vortex started its weakening phase but camped out over Canada where it was cold from coast-to-coast with temperatures trending -9.9F colder than last year and 15th coldest in 40 years. The U.K. and Brazil were also on the cold side. This time of year, warmer and drier weather is better for overall retail sales and overall GDP.
This week (16-22 Mar) shows Winter in the West and Spring-like in the Northeast and Central U.S. National temperatures +3.7F warmer than a year ago, warmest in 3 years and 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall up +56% vs last year, most in 3 years and 18th wettest of the past 40 years, while snowfall is similar to last year and 19th most of the past 40 years. The Northeast and Texas are likely to have the most improved trends for early Spring merchandise sales.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (15-20 March) shows the West and Upper Midwest still being impacted by heavy snow which is a negative for store traffic. The U.S. overall trends +249% more than last year, most in 12 years and 9th most in 40 years with 44% of the U.S. population getting some snow.
Next week (23-29 Mar) shows a bigger warm surge in the Central Plains with the coasts less extreme. The U.S. overall trends +8.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 13 years and 6th warmest of the past 30 years. This was the Easter week prior last year which had very unfavorable cold, wet and snowy conditions, so some lift with better weather, but losing the holiday to middle April will hurt. With less intense cold in the West, the severe weather threat won't be as likely.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (16-29 Mar) shows the Western U.S. the least favorable for Spring sales, most favorable in the South-Central U.S. and Northeast. Eastern Europe is more favorable (warmer) than Western Europe (colder).
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (16-29 Mar) shows a wetter pattern across the U.S. and Europe which is a negative for store traffic. Snowy conditions still widespread across Canada.
We'll end with our DOMO-WeatherTrends360 promotional video and case study from Midea using the new DOMO-wt360 software solution.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
Team360 is headed to the DOMO'Palooza annual conference in Utah this week to showcase the new DOMO-wt360 year-ahead retail/supplier weather and sales forecasting software solution. To say it's awesome is an understatement (see video at the end of today's blog for more information). CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
wt360's Power of 1 Degree year-ahead forecasting technology combined with DOMO's AI/data solutions will be discussed during the opening session at 9:30am on Wednesday 19 March with DOMO CEO Josh James.
It was a slow start to the severe weather season, but we picked up steam with the first major outbreak which now has tornadoes up +2% vs last year (still -24% below avg), wind cases the most impactful up +43% vs last year and +46% above average, while hail cases are still -53% vs last year and -23% below average.
The 3-day outlook from NOAA Storm Prediction Center shows the severe weather risk shifting out of the Midwest into the Southeast Saturday and Eat Coast Sunday.
A couple more big storm systems over the next couple weeks will keep the severe weather threat on the high side.
Season-to-date U.S. snowfall is picking up some ground with heavier snow finally impacting the Western high mountains. The Southwest still has the biggest snowfall deficits, trending -48% vs last year and the least in 22 years. The Northwest is also down -33% vs last year and least in 10 years. The Southeast was the biggest winner with the most snow in 10 years, Northeast most in 4 years. The U.S. overall is trending +32% more snow than last year but still 5th least in the past 40 years.
The top 5 snowiest weeks were #1 5-11 Jan, #2 9-15 Feb, #3 16-22 Feb, #4 2-8 Feb and #5 19-25 Jan. Another snowy week ahead for middle March.
The good news is FLU continues to make its annual plunge in cases after a severe but very late spike around Valentines' Day. This year's spike in cases was 6 weeks later than last year's Christmas spike and 12 weeks later than the very early 2023 season that peaked at Thanksgiving.
Last week (9-15 Mar) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 9 years and 4th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall was down -25% vs last year, least in 4 years and 17th least in 40 years, while snowfall was down -38% vs last year, least in 9 years and 6th least in 40 years. These were generally favorable trends for store traffic and early Spring merchandise sales.
The Polar Vortex started its weakening phase but camped out over Canada where it was cold from coast-to-coast with temperatures trending -9.9F colder than last year and 15th coldest in 40 years. The U.K. and Brazil were also on the cold side. This time of year, warmer and drier weather is better for overall retail sales and overall GDP.
This week (16-22 Mar) shows Winter in the West and Spring-like in the Northeast and Central U.S. National temperatures +3.7F warmer than a year ago, warmest in 3 years and 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall up +56% vs last year, most in 3 years and 18th wettest of the past 40 years, while snowfall is similar to last year and 19th most of the past 40 years. The Northeast and Texas are likely to have the most improved trends for early Spring merchandise sales.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (15-20 March) shows the West and Upper Midwest still being impacted by heavy snow which is a negative for store traffic. The U.S. overall trends +249% more than last year, most in 12 years and 9th most in 40 years with 44% of the U.S. population getting some snow.
Next week (23-29 Mar) shows a bigger warm surge in the Central Plains with the coasts less extreme. The U.S. overall trends +8.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 13 years and 6th warmest of the past 30 years. This was the Easter week prior last year which had very unfavorable cold, wet and snowy conditions, so some lift with better weather, but losing the holiday to middle April will hurt. With less intense cold in the West, the severe weather threat won't be as likely.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (16-29 Mar) shows the Western U.S. the least favorable for Spring sales, most favorable in the South-Central U.S. and Northeast. Eastern Europe is more favorable (warmer) than Western Europe (colder).
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (16-29 Mar) shows a wetter pattern across the U.S. and Europe which is a negative for store traffic. Snowy conditions still widespread across Canada.
We'll end with our DOMO-WeatherTrends360 promotional video and case study from Midea using the new DOMO-wt360 software solution.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out