Captain's Blog 15 Feb '25 Coldest & Snowiest in 10 Years East - Warm West
Captain's Log
15 Feb '25: Happy Saturday :)
Team360 and new partner DOMO will be at the Category Management Association Annual Conference in Texas. Stop by Tuesday 18 Feb 4pm-4:30pm to hear how Midea is leveraging the new DOMO-wt360 year-ahead sales/inventory software forecasting solution. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
wt360's YEAR-AHEAD forecasts offer a lot more detail that what you get from other weather firms with store level information by week out a year. The year-ahead forecasts were much more accurate than almost every weather companies Winter 2024-2-25 outlook calling for the coldest Winter in 7 years, especially in the East, most everyone else had a warm East Coast winter.
We were on with client FOX Weather talking about the Spring and how weather influences seasonal categories. Winter will end up the coldest in 10 years nationally and Spring isn't much better trending coldest in 6 years. Big negative coming for Spring seasonal categories.
Recall last year was the 2nd Warmest February in 129 years, warmest in 7 years with the #1 LEAST snow in over 40 years. Planning sales off last year February is leading to a huge downward trend for retailers.
And severe weather will shift more toward wildfires (worst in 10 years), late Spring freeze, drought and shifting hurricane risk areas. Tornadoes and floods down.
Snow Cover this morning shows 48% of the country with snow on the ground, up from 29% last year and the most in 4 years. This is well above the average of 40% cover. This will increase this week with two bigger snow events traversing the U.S.
Season-to-date U.S. snowfall shows the Southwest trending down the most with 68% less snow than last year, least in 25 years, while the Southeast is the biggest winner with the most snow in 11 years. The Northeast will continue to increase with two systems this week.
Weekly U.S. snowfall trends show the 2nd most snow of the season this past week (weekending Feb 15th) and now this coming week could rival the early January peak snowy week (weekending Jan 11th). Many stores in the East are stocked out of Ice Melt with the much more frequent snow events this year vs last year.
Great Lakes ice cover increased to 35%, the most in 4 years benefiting ice fishing categories.
Last week (9-15 Feb) across the World shows the U.S. trending a whopping -10.5F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years and 9th coldest in 40 years with below average national temperatures. Snowfall was up +190%, most in 4 years and 8th most in 40 years, while rainfall was the #1 most in over 40 years. Canada was downright frigid trending 2nd coldest in 40 years. These are very negative trends for store traffic as warmer/drier weather is the most ideal conditions this time of year.
This week (16-22 Feb) shows another big plunge in temperatures with the U.S. trending 13.7F colder than last year and the #1 coldest in over 40 years! This will drive exceptional demand for must have Winter consumable categories like hot beverages (+27% vs last year), heaters (+96% vs last year) and snow accessories (+137% vs last year) at the expense of store traffic - 14% vs last year. Snowfall up +275% vs LY, most in 10 years and 4th most in 40 years, with the wettest conditions in 6 years nationally. Damaging wind gusts possible this weekend in the Great Lakes and Northeast!
The 6-day snowfall outlook (15-20 Feb) shows two major snow events traversing the U.S. this week resulting in +202% more snow than last year, most in 22 years and 2nd most in 40 years with 68% of the U.S. population getting snow. A wholesale change from last year's warm snowless February.
Next week (23 Feb - 1 Mar) shows warmth expanding in the West and Central Plains, but it remains cold in the Eastern half of the U.S. The nation overall still trends -5.2F colder than last year with snowfall up +270% vs LY. Another Central U.S. snow threat. These continue to be negative trends for Spring seasonal category sales.
The World 2-week outlook (16 Feb -1 Mar) shows the Central and Eastern U.S. taking the brunt of the cold while Europe shows some moderation.
World precipitation trends shows the stormy pattern continuing in the U.S. putting a damper on store traffic and overall retail sales. Europe is much drier benefiting store traffic.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
Team360 and new partner DOMO will be at the Category Management Association Annual Conference in Texas. Stop by Tuesday 18 Feb 4pm-4:30pm to hear how Midea is leveraging the new DOMO-wt360 year-ahead sales/inventory software forecasting solution. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
wt360's YEAR-AHEAD forecasts offer a lot more detail that what you get from other weather firms with store level information by week out a year. The year-ahead forecasts were much more accurate than almost every weather companies Winter 2024-2-25 outlook calling for the coldest Winter in 7 years, especially in the East, most everyone else had a warm East Coast winter.
The wt360 year-ahead forecasts are significantly more accurate than NOAA and others despite being a year-ahead with forecasts that don't change once issued. This allows Fortune 500 companies to plan how much to buy or make, where to allocate more or less seasonal inventory, when to promote or advertise in optimal consumer weather with much more confidence. Don't gamble with the weather's influence on your business.
We were on with client FOX Weather talking about the Spring and how weather influences seasonal categories. Winter will end up the coldest in 10 years nationally and Spring isn't much better trending coldest in 6 years. Big negative coming for Spring seasonal categories.
Recall last year was the 2nd Warmest February in 129 years, warmest in 7 years with the #1 LEAST snow in over 40 years. Planning sales off last year February is leading to a huge downward trend for retailers.
And severe weather will shift more toward wildfires (worst in 10 years), late Spring freeze, drought and shifting hurricane risk areas. Tornadoes and floods down.
Snow Cover this morning shows 48% of the country with snow on the ground, up from 29% last year and the most in 4 years. This is well above the average of 40% cover. This will increase this week with two bigger snow events traversing the U.S.
Season-to-date U.S. snowfall shows the Southwest trending down the most with 68% less snow than last year, least in 25 years, while the Southeast is the biggest winner with the most snow in 11 years. The Northeast will continue to increase with two systems this week.
Weekly U.S. snowfall trends show the 2nd most snow of the season this past week (weekending Feb 15th) and now this coming week could rival the early January peak snowy week (weekending Jan 11th). Many stores in the East are stocked out of Ice Melt with the much more frequent snow events this year vs last year.
Great Lakes ice cover increased to 35%, the most in 4 years benefiting ice fishing categories.
Last week (9-15 Feb) across the World shows the U.S. trending a whopping -10.5F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years and 9th coldest in 40 years with below average national temperatures. Snowfall was up +190%, most in 4 years and 8th most in 40 years, while rainfall was the #1 most in over 40 years. Canada was downright frigid trending 2nd coldest in 40 years. These are very negative trends for store traffic as warmer/drier weather is the most ideal conditions this time of year.
This week (16-22 Feb) shows another big plunge in temperatures with the U.S. trending 13.7F colder than last year and the #1 coldest in over 40 years! This will drive exceptional demand for must have Winter consumable categories like hot beverages (+27% vs last year), heaters (+96% vs last year) and snow accessories (+137% vs last year) at the expense of store traffic - 14% vs last year. Snowfall up +275% vs LY, most in 10 years and 4th most in 40 years, with the wettest conditions in 6 years nationally. Damaging wind gusts possible this weekend in the Great Lakes and Northeast!
The 6-day snowfall outlook (15-20 Feb) shows two major snow events traversing the U.S. this week resulting in +202% more snow than last year, most in 22 years and 2nd most in 40 years with 68% of the U.S. population getting snow. A wholesale change from last year's warm snowless February.
Next week (23 Feb - 1 Mar) shows warmth expanding in the West and Central Plains, but it remains cold in the Eastern half of the U.S. The nation overall still trends -5.2F colder than last year with snowfall up +270% vs LY. Another Central U.S. snow threat. These continue to be negative trends for Spring seasonal category sales.
The World 2-week outlook (16 Feb -1 Mar) shows the Central and Eastern U.S. taking the brunt of the cold while Europe shows some moderation.
World precipitation trends shows the stormy pattern continuing in the U.S. putting a damper on store traffic and overall retail sales. Europe is much drier benefiting store traffic.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out