20 Dec '25 wt360 Weather Brief - Mild & Drier Benefits Store Traffic
Captain's Log
20 Dec '25: Happy Saturday! :)
Today's wt360 AI summary for the Holiday Shopping Season shows a tale of two halves. Since Black Friday it's been the coldest and snowiest in 12 years which helped Winter merchandise sales but hurt overall store traffic. Now the next 2-weeks are the warmest in 41 years (good for traffic) but most snow in 3 years - still below average which is a benefit for overall store traffic. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
With a stronger Polar Vortex, more of the Arctic air will stay bottled up at the North Pole going into January, but we do expect it will make a return later in the month and in February and March, so Winter isn't over yet.
Snowfall likely to be above average in January despite the milder trend compared to last year's coldest January in 11 years, this year warmest in 3 years.
U.S. Season-to-date snowfall is now trending +81% more than last year, most in 3 years and 20th most in 40 years which +3% above average nationally. The Midwest, Great Lakes and Interior New England are the big winners. Even the Coastal Middle Atlantic is off to a fast snowy start.
Cold days less than 32F nationally are inching up +11% vs last year, most in 3 years but still 10th least in 40 years.
Weekly Snowfall trends show the snowier year-over-year pattern with a brief lull here in middle December, but picking up again over the next couple weeks. Currently weekending 13 December has been the snowiest week of the season so far.
Last week (14-20 Dec) across the World still showed the U.S. trending -3.2F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years but 16th warmest in 40 years. Snowfall was down -33% vs last year and 12th least in 40 years, while rainfall was only up +5% but still 17th driest in 40 years. These were improving trends for store traffic. It was a tale of two halves with the East cold, West very warm. Canada was the coldest in 5 years, while China was the warmest in 27 years. Still very wet in Brazil as wt360 forecast a year ago with the wettest conditions in 15 years (3rd wettest in 40 years) - great for their crops which will ultimately lead to lowering Corn prices.
This week (21-27 Dec) of Christmas shows the exceptionally warm conditions for much of the U.S. with the U.S. overall trending +4.8F warmer than last year and #1 warmest in 40 years. Snow is up +136%, but that's still well below average, while rainfall is the least in 15 years. These are very favorable trends for store traffic and gift sales over Winter merchandise sales.
The 6-day snowfall (20 - 25 Dec) outlook shows 22% of the U.S. population will get some snow going into Christmas. This is -3% less than last year and 6th least of the past 40 years. The snowiest spots are in the high elevations of the West and New England.
Next week (28 Dec - 3 Jan '26) shows some moderation of the really warm conditions with the East Coast and West Coast the cooler spots. The U.S. overall trends +0.6F warmer than last year and 8th warmest of the past 40 years. Snowfall up +39% vs LY, most in 4 years and 21st least in 41 years (near average). Milder and Drier weather is historically better for store traffic and Winter clearance sales starting in January and continuing through July.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (21 Dec - 3 Jan) shows the Polar Vortex bottle up over Alaska, West Canada and SE Russia. There should be another weakening PV phase for middle to late January with colder weather more likely late in the U.S.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (21 Dec - 3 Jan) shows much needed rain and snow for California while the South and Northeast are drier. Very dry across the U.K. and Europe benefits store traffic.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
Today's wt360 AI summary for the Holiday Shopping Season shows a tale of two halves. Since Black Friday it's been the coldest and snowiest in 12 years which helped Winter merchandise sales but hurt overall store traffic. Now the next 2-weeks are the warmest in 41 years (good for traffic) but most snow in 3 years - still below average which is a benefit for overall store traffic. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
With a stronger Polar Vortex, more of the Arctic air will stay bottled up at the North Pole going into January, but we do expect it will make a return later in the month and in February and March, so Winter isn't over yet.
Snowfall likely to be above average in January despite the milder trend compared to last year's coldest January in 11 years, this year warmest in 3 years.
U.S. Season-to-date snowfall is now trending +81% more than last year, most in 3 years and 20th most in 40 years which +3% above average nationally. The Midwest, Great Lakes and Interior New England are the big winners. Even the Coastal Middle Atlantic is off to a fast snowy start.
Cold days less than 32F nationally are inching up +11% vs last year, most in 3 years but still 10th least in 40 years.
Weekly Snowfall trends show the snowier year-over-year pattern with a brief lull here in middle December, but picking up again over the next couple weeks. Currently weekending 13 December has been the snowiest week of the season so far.
Last week (14-20 Dec) across the World still showed the U.S. trending -3.2F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years but 16th warmest in 40 years. Snowfall was down -33% vs last year and 12th least in 40 years, while rainfall was only up +5% but still 17th driest in 40 years. These were improving trends for store traffic. It was a tale of two halves with the East cold, West very warm. Canada was the coldest in 5 years, while China was the warmest in 27 years. Still very wet in Brazil as wt360 forecast a year ago with the wettest conditions in 15 years (3rd wettest in 40 years) - great for their crops which will ultimately lead to lowering Corn prices.
This week (21-27 Dec) of Christmas shows the exceptionally warm conditions for much of the U.S. with the U.S. overall trending +4.8F warmer than last year and #1 warmest in 40 years. Snow is up +136%, but that's still well below average, while rainfall is the least in 15 years. These are very favorable trends for store traffic and gift sales over Winter merchandise sales.
The 6-day snowfall (20 - 25 Dec) outlook shows 22% of the U.S. population will get some snow going into Christmas. This is -3% less than last year and 6th least of the past 40 years. The snowiest spots are in the high elevations of the West and New England.
Next week (28 Dec - 3 Jan '26) shows some moderation of the really warm conditions with the East Coast and West Coast the cooler spots. The U.S. overall trends +0.6F warmer than last year and 8th warmest of the past 40 years. Snowfall up +39% vs LY, most in 4 years and 21st least in 41 years (near average). Milder and Drier weather is historically better for store traffic and Winter clearance sales starting in January and continuing through July.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (21 Dec - 3 Jan) shows the Polar Vortex bottle up over Alaska, West Canada and SE Russia. There should be another weakening PV phase for middle to late January with colder weather more likely late in the U.S.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (21 Dec - 3 Jan) shows much needed rain and snow for California while the South and Northeast are drier. Very dry across the U.K. and Europe benefits store traffic.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)