17 Jan '26 wt360 Weather Brief Cold & Snow Returns East, Warm/Dry West
Captain's Log
Wednesday 21 January '26 Blizzard Update:
This will be a very disruptive weekend for retail and the impacts from this storm will continue for the weeks ahead. Store traffic will take a major hit the next week or more with this weekend event trending the coldest in over 41 years, #1 snowiest in over 41 years with 71% of the U.S. population getting snow, and #1 wettest in over 41 years for the U.S. as a whole. West Coast escapes the disruptive weather.
Hardest hit will be from Kansas to North Texas to Virginia to Pennsylvania to NYC to Massachusetts. This will be the dry powdery snow that blows disrupting travel well after the storm. A severe ice storm will knock out power for potentially a week or more in the battle ground areas from North Texas to Tennessee to North Carolina. Be safe!
17 Jan '26: Happy Saturday! :)
For our FarmCast SMB clients, we're releasing our 2026 World Ag/Farm video Monday, check your email in the afternoon. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Here is some of what we covered. We always joke that the AI robots say they can only make a 10 day forecast, so we asked GROK who is the best at year-ahead long range predictive analytics...the answer....wt360! GROK our new best friend HA
In the FarmCast video we start with how our year-ahead 2025 accuracy performed predicting record Corn yields last year, that happened, with a year-ahead forecast in the 77% to 81% range for the U.S. Corn Belt.
Highlighted our year-ahead January 2026 retail report that showed a very warm start to January but then a return to cold and snow late month - that's happening and likely to continue well into March with a cold back half of Winter.
One big climate cycle shift is the RAPID transition from La Niña to El Niño in Spring this year which will shift the U.S. away from dry conditions to a wetter pattern. This will benefit crop yields for farmers, but it will keep prices on the lower side.
This climate shift is already evident in Brazil where rainfall is the most in 10 years for their Full Season corn crops. This will continue for their 2nd Safrinha Crop, bringing near record yields on top of last year's record yields. Again, more price pressure for the Ag soft commodities.
Models show an early to late Spring onset of El Niño with the potential for a moderate El Niño by late Summer.
This is very certain as the sub-surface Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures show a large pool of much warmer than average water temperatures bubbling to the surface eroding the cold La Niña waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will have major implications for the 2026 weather conditions.
With a much colder and snowier Spring, there is also risk for a fast start to the severe weather season. After two near record tornado count seasons, this year down a bit, but still active in the Heartland.
Drought will make major improvements in 2026, but with the weakening La Nina still in place, 68% of the U.S. is currently in dry to drought phases, the most in 4 years and 3rd most in 26 years. Again, this will improve dramatically in 2026.
Back to Winter, U.S. season-to-date snowfall shows +14% more snow than last year, most in 3 years, but still 14th least in 41 years and -18% below average. This will increase over the next two months with a snowy February and March.
The U.S. cold less than 32F index shows a +1% increase over last year, most in 3 years but still 7th warmest of the past 41 years.
U.S. weekly snowfall trends still show late November into middle December as the big snowy period and then a lull to start January. But snow looks to pick up here in late January through middle March.
Last week (11-17 Jan) across the World shows the U.S. trending +5.2F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 8th warmest in 41 years. While rainfall was down -16% vs last year and least in 16 years, snowfall was actually up +51% vs LY and 17th least of the past 41 years. Now through July, warmer/drier weather trends are typically better for overall retail sales and store traffic. Europe was cold East, warmer West and frigid across Russia. Brazil again wet with the wettest conditions in 10 years benefiting their crops.
This week (18-24 Jan) MLK Jr holiday weekend shows the U.S. trending +8F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years but 17th coldest of the past 41 years. The past two years this has been the period of major Polar Vortex outbreaks, so this year's cold shot is nowhere near as extreme as prior years. After a very warm start to January, this will benefit cold seasonal merchandise, just don't expect sales to outperform the very strong gains the past couple years. The West remains warm and dry with mounting Winter merchandise.
The 6-day snowfall outlook shows generally light snow except higher amounts around the Great Lakes and New England. Even the Deep South could see some light snow this weekend with 53% of the U.S. getting some snow.
Next week (25-31 Jan) ends the retail Q4 and it goes out on a colder and snowier pattern. The U.S. trends -7.5F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 10th coldest of the past 41 years with the same general theme of cold East, warm West. Snowfall up +144% and most in 3 years, while rainfall is down -49% and least in 4 years. This is good for Winter clearance sales in the East but it can hurt overall store traffic.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (18-31 Jan) shows the general theme of a cold Canada, cold Eastern U.S. and cold Europe. This will lead to much higher energy consumption over the next few weeks.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (18-31 Jan) shows a dry pattern for the southern half of the U.S., but snowier northern tier. Remains wet for Brazil's crop regions.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
This will be a very disruptive weekend for retail and the impacts from this storm will continue for the weeks ahead. Store traffic will take a major hit the next week or more with this weekend event trending the coldest in over 41 years, #1 snowiest in over 41 years with 71% of the U.S. population getting snow, and #1 wettest in over 41 years for the U.S. as a whole. West Coast escapes the disruptive weather.
Hardest hit will be from Kansas to North Texas to Virginia to Pennsylvania to NYC to Massachusetts. This will be the dry powdery snow that blows disrupting travel well after the storm. A severe ice storm will knock out power for potentially a week or more in the battle ground areas from North Texas to Tennessee to North Carolina. Be safe!
17 Jan '26: Happy Saturday! :)
For our FarmCast SMB clients, we're releasing our 2026 World Ag/Farm video Monday, check your email in the afternoon. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Here is some of what we covered. We always joke that the AI robots say they can only make a 10 day forecast, so we asked GROK who is the best at year-ahead long range predictive analytics...the answer....wt360! GROK our new best friend HA
In the FarmCast video we start with how our year-ahead 2025 accuracy performed predicting record Corn yields last year, that happened, with a year-ahead forecast in the 77% to 81% range for the U.S. Corn Belt.
Highlighted our year-ahead January 2026 retail report that showed a very warm start to January but then a return to cold and snow late month - that's happening and likely to continue well into March with a cold back half of Winter.
One big climate cycle shift is the RAPID transition from La Niña to El Niño in Spring this year which will shift the U.S. away from dry conditions to a wetter pattern. This will benefit crop yields for farmers, but it will keep prices on the lower side.
This climate shift is already evident in Brazil where rainfall is the most in 10 years for their Full Season corn crops. This will continue for their 2nd Safrinha Crop, bringing near record yields on top of last year's record yields. Again, more price pressure for the Ag soft commodities.
Models show an early to late Spring onset of El Niño with the potential for a moderate El Niño by late Summer.
This is very certain as the sub-surface Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures show a large pool of much warmer than average water temperatures bubbling to the surface eroding the cold La Niña waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will have major implications for the 2026 weather conditions.
With a much colder and snowier Spring, there is also risk for a fast start to the severe weather season. After two near record tornado count seasons, this year down a bit, but still active in the Heartland.
Drought will make major improvements in 2026, but with the weakening La Nina still in place, 68% of the U.S. is currently in dry to drought phases, the most in 4 years and 3rd most in 26 years. Again, this will improve dramatically in 2026.
Back to Winter, U.S. season-to-date snowfall shows +14% more snow than last year, most in 3 years, but still 14th least in 41 years and -18% below average. This will increase over the next two months with a snowy February and March.
The U.S. cold less than 32F index shows a +1% increase over last year, most in 3 years but still 7th warmest of the past 41 years.
U.S. weekly snowfall trends still show late November into middle December as the big snowy period and then a lull to start January. But snow looks to pick up here in late January through middle March.
Last week (11-17 Jan) across the World shows the U.S. trending +5.2F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 8th warmest in 41 years. While rainfall was down -16% vs last year and least in 16 years, snowfall was actually up +51% vs LY and 17th least of the past 41 years. Now through July, warmer/drier weather trends are typically better for overall retail sales and store traffic. Europe was cold East, warmer West and frigid across Russia. Brazil again wet with the wettest conditions in 10 years benefiting their crops.
This week (18-24 Jan) MLK Jr holiday weekend shows the U.S. trending +8F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years but 17th coldest of the past 41 years. The past two years this has been the period of major Polar Vortex outbreaks, so this year's cold shot is nowhere near as extreme as prior years. After a very warm start to January, this will benefit cold seasonal merchandise, just don't expect sales to outperform the very strong gains the past couple years. The West remains warm and dry with mounting Winter merchandise.
The 6-day snowfall outlook shows generally light snow except higher amounts around the Great Lakes and New England. Even the Deep South could see some light snow this weekend with 53% of the U.S. getting some snow.
Next week (25-31 Jan) ends the retail Q4 and it goes out on a colder and snowier pattern. The U.S. trends -7.5F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 10th coldest of the past 41 years with the same general theme of cold East, warm West. Snowfall up +144% and most in 3 years, while rainfall is down -49% and least in 4 years. This is good for Winter clearance sales in the East but it can hurt overall store traffic.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (18-31 Jan) shows the general theme of a cold Canada, cold Eastern U.S. and cold Europe. This will lead to much higher energy consumption over the next few weeks.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (18-31 Jan) shows a dry pattern for the southern half of the U.S., but snowier northern tier. Remains wet for Brazil's crop regions.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)