14 Feb '26 wt360 Weather Brief - Polar Vortex Coming Back!
Captain's Log
14 Feb '26: Happy Saturday! :)
We hope you're having a great Valentine's Day/President's Day weekend. Still time to sign up for the Eagle Alpha Alternative Data Conference in NYC 18 March - we'll be showcasing our new Equity 100 solution at the morning sessions. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Our weekly wt360 AI query on our year-ahead March 2026 outlook. Shows a lot of risk for Spring seasonal category sales with areas like the Northeast expected to be the coldest in 7 years, snowiest in 8 years. Garden categories nationally show the worst sales index in 13 years, while First Energy the best in 9 years. A little more valuable information than the not so business friendly NOAA outlooks.
Short range models coming into agreement that the year-ahead outlook will likely verify as the Polar Vortex looks to come roaring back into the U.S. in late February into March.
Last week World Summary (8-14 March) shows the U.S. enjoying a much needed "February Thaw" with the country trending +8.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 5th warmest of the past 41 years. Snowfall was down -86% vs last year, least in 3 years and 3rd least in 41 years nationally, while rainfall was down -79%, driest in 4 years and 6th driest in 41 years. These are ideal conditions for store traffic with warmer/drier weather better for almost all retail outlets. Europe was warmer but exceptionally wet, a negative for traffic. Brazil continued their transition to a much wetter pattern that's developed over the past few months - good for their crops.
The other minor factor that can impact store traffic is the FLU and that's trended flat the past few weeks and down a significant -41% vs last year. This could tick up again in March with the colder weather.
U.S. Season to date snowfall is trending +14% more than last year nationally, most in 5 years, 17th least in 41 years and -9% below average. But the East Coast is much above average, trending the most in 12 years, North Central most in 6 years, while the West is the least in 41+ years.
Sub-freezing days across the U.S. are trending +4% more than last year, most in 5 years, but still 13th least in 41 years.
Weekly U.S. snowfall trends show the middle February lull in snow, but an uptick for the last week of the month. The pattern should turn much snowier for most weeks in March.
This week (15-21 Feb) President's Day trends a whopping +18.5F warmer than last year and #1 warmest of the past 41 years. Snowfall is down -22% vs last year but still 12th most of the past 41 years and above average, while rainfall is up +42%, wettest in 5 years and 11th wettest in 41 years. This stormier pattern while likely suppress store traffic a bit despite the much milder weather. Warm/Dry is the most ideal weather for seasonal sales and store traffic this time of year, so the Central U.S. is a bright spot.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (14-19 Feb) shows -50% less snow vs last year, but still 16th most over the past 41 years with 46% of the U.S. population getting some snow.
Next week (22-28 Feb) starts to show signs of the Polar Vortex with the U.S. trending -5.1F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years but still 13th warmest in 41 years nationally. Snowfall up +383% vs last year, most in 3 years despite being 12th least in 41 years. The big change is rainfall up +247%, wettest in 32 years and 3rd wettest in 41 years. These are negative trends for seasonal sales and store traffic. South Florida and the Southwest are the bright spots for higher traffic.
The World 2-week (15-28 Feb) Temperature outlook shows a cross Polar Vortex flow from Siberia into Canada and heading into the U.S. Warm Western Europe, colder Eastern Europe and very hot in the Middle East - Asia.
The World 2-week (15-28 Feb) Precipitation outlook shows a much stormier pattern across the U.S. and Canada, most of Europe and Brazil.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
We hope you're having a great Valentine's Day/President's Day weekend. Still time to sign up for the Eagle Alpha Alternative Data Conference in NYC 18 March - we'll be showcasing our new Equity 100 solution at the morning sessions. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Our weekly wt360 AI query on our year-ahead March 2026 outlook. Shows a lot of risk for Spring seasonal category sales with areas like the Northeast expected to be the coldest in 7 years, snowiest in 8 years. Garden categories nationally show the worst sales index in 13 years, while First Energy the best in 9 years. A little more valuable information than the not so business friendly NOAA outlooks.
Short range models coming into agreement that the year-ahead outlook will likely verify as the Polar Vortex looks to come roaring back into the U.S. in late February into March.
Last week World Summary (8-14 March) shows the U.S. enjoying a much needed "February Thaw" with the country trending +8.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 5th warmest of the past 41 years. Snowfall was down -86% vs last year, least in 3 years and 3rd least in 41 years nationally, while rainfall was down -79%, driest in 4 years and 6th driest in 41 years. These are ideal conditions for store traffic with warmer/drier weather better for almost all retail outlets. Europe was warmer but exceptionally wet, a negative for traffic. Brazil continued their transition to a much wetter pattern that's developed over the past few months - good for their crops.
The other minor factor that can impact store traffic is the FLU and that's trended flat the past few weeks and down a significant -41% vs last year. This could tick up again in March with the colder weather.
U.S. Season to date snowfall is trending +14% more than last year nationally, most in 5 years, 17th least in 41 years and -9% below average. But the East Coast is much above average, trending the most in 12 years, North Central most in 6 years, while the West is the least in 41+ years.
Sub-freezing days across the U.S. are trending +4% more than last year, most in 5 years, but still 13th least in 41 years.
Weekly U.S. snowfall trends show the middle February lull in snow, but an uptick for the last week of the month. The pattern should turn much snowier for most weeks in March.
This week (15-21 Feb) President's Day trends a whopping +18.5F warmer than last year and #1 warmest of the past 41 years. Snowfall is down -22% vs last year but still 12th most of the past 41 years and above average, while rainfall is up +42%, wettest in 5 years and 11th wettest in 41 years. This stormier pattern while likely suppress store traffic a bit despite the much milder weather. Warm/Dry is the most ideal weather for seasonal sales and store traffic this time of year, so the Central U.S. is a bright spot.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (14-19 Feb) shows -50% less snow vs last year, but still 16th most over the past 41 years with 46% of the U.S. population getting some snow.
Next week (22-28 Feb) starts to show signs of the Polar Vortex with the U.S. trending -5.1F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years but still 13th warmest in 41 years nationally. Snowfall up +383% vs last year, most in 3 years despite being 12th least in 41 years. The big change is rainfall up +247%, wettest in 32 years and 3rd wettest in 41 years. These are negative trends for seasonal sales and store traffic. South Florida and the Southwest are the bright spots for higher traffic.
The World 2-week (15-28 Feb) Temperature outlook shows a cross Polar Vortex flow from Siberia into Canada and heading into the U.S. Warm Western Europe, colder Eastern Europe and very hot in the Middle East - Asia.
The World 2-week (15-28 Feb) Precipitation outlook shows a much stormier pattern across the U.S. and Canada, most of Europe and Brazil.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)