While all the media buzz is on the severe weather and flooding, the U.S. year-to-date rainfall is actually DOWN -28% vs last year, least in 10 years and 11th least in 40 years. A big change from last year's wettest in 26 years to date. AR-KY has been the hardest hit area with excessive rainfall nearing 25"+ YTD. 66% of the rest of the country is in dry to drought phases. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Q1 (Feb - Apr) started off very poorly and then picked up steam middle March and now a softer April. Overall, the 1st quarter of 2025 is trending -1.7F colder than last year, still 7th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall down -5% vs lasty year but still 16th wettest of the past 40 years, while snowfall was up +40% but 7th least in 40 years. Overall, slightly negative trends YOY.
Severe weather came roaring back after a quiet 3rd week, but the late March outbreak added 134 tornadoes, 467 hail events and 978 wind events for a very active week. Tornadoes are now more than last year, hail and wind the most in 8 years.
After this weekend, another lull going into next week.
Last week (30 Mar - 5 Apr) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.7F warmer than last year, warmest in 8 years and 6th warmest in 40 years. But it was a tale of two halves with the West cold and the East warm. Rainfall was +61% and the #1 most in 40 years with all the flooding from AR to KY skewing the national totals. The most ideal conditions for Spring seasonal sales are warm/dry weather, so the rain was a dampening factor. Very favorable conditions across the U.K., Western Europe while Canada was very unfavorable.
The forecast map for Saturday (5 Apr) shows another round of flooding rain and severe weather from Arkansas to Kentucky going over already hard-hit areas.
This week (6-12 Apr) shows another flip flop in the pattern with hot weather shifting West and much colder conditions in the Eastern half of the country. The U.S. overall trends -2.3F colder than last year, coolest in 3 year and 19th coolest in 40 years. The East is the coolest in 7 years, while the West is the warmest in 9 years. Rainfall -21% drier than a year ago nationally, but still 15th wettest in 40 years. Overall, a negative start to April for Spring merchandise.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (5-10 Apr) shows +103% more snow than a year ago, most in 6 years with 26% of the country getting some snow, especially the Southern Rockies and Northeast.
Next week (13-19 Apr) prior Easter shows some moderation with the U.S. trending -0.5F cooler than last year, but still 6th warmest of the past 40 year. Rainfall down -19% and the least in 17 years, so a lull in severe weather activity. This is a neutral to slightly positive (dry) factor for Easter sales.
The World 2-week outlook (6-19 Apr) shows the Northeast the coolest spot with the West warmer. Europe is warm, but still much colder than last year so a negative for seasonal YOY sales trends. Asia and the Middle East are the hot spots.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook shows a drier pattern for the hard-hit areas of Central U.S. Beneficial rains continue across Brazil's growing regions.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
